The result of the Nice referendum will influence the future direction, not only of Ireland and Europe, but of Bertie Ahern, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
If the Taoiseach didn't already have a strong enough motivation to win the Nice Treaty referendum, he does now.
His standing and authority within the Government and Fianna Fáil have been damaged by the surprise spending cuts, his apparently forced volte-face on the national stadium and the fallout from the Flood tribunal report.
Failure on Nice would cap a truly awful three months for him.
Many Government backbenchers are making it clear privately this week that the Nice result is crucial to the stability of Bertie Ahern's position as Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach. Few believe that defeat would automatically precipitate a challenge to him, but they say it would leave him in a poor position to withstand any further dents to his credibility.
And further dents there may be. The Flood tribunal is to grind on, while the Government faces a torrid time in winning public acceptance of the new economic phase of cutbacks, increased charges for public services and possible increases in some taxes. The Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, admitted yesterday for the first time that an Exchequer deficit was now likely this year, making a difficult budget for next year inevitable .
In relation to the Flood tribunal there will be a series of allegations concerning corrupt payments to politicians over the next couple of years. The most politically troubling evidence from Mr Ahern's point of view may be that of Tom Gilmartin, the London- based Irish builder.
Mr Gilmartin, who was seeking to develop a major shopping centre at Quarryvale in west Dublin and also a large site at Bachelors Walk in the city centre, has said he gave a cheque for £50,000 intended for Fianna Fáil to the minister for the environment, Pádraig Flynn, in the late 1980s.
He has claimed he was asked a few months later by Mr Ahern for a donation to Fianna Fáil, but told him he had already given one to Mr Flynn. Mr Ahern strongly rejects the claim that he ever asked Mr Gilmartin for money for the party, and says he has no recollection of any phone conversation with him.
Mr Gilmartin has also said he met Charles Haughey, Bertie Ahern and Brian Lenihan at a meeting arranged by Liam Lawlor . He has said he was approached outside that meeting by someone seeking a substantial sum of money from him. The tribunal has received allegations of money being paid over to politicians in relation to the tax designation of certain sites for development.
Again, Mr Ahern strongly denies any dealings or discussion with Mr Gilmartin concerning money, and there is no other known allegation that suggests anything to the contrary.
However, when the tribunal gets round to examining these matters it may prove a difficult time for the Taoiseach. Even if Mr Ahern can, as he insists, satisfactorily answer any allegation concerning his knowledge of impropriety, false allegations will swirl around, causing damage before they are cleared.
Apart from the Flood tribunal, Mr Ahern will have to manage the transition to an atmosphere where the ambitious health strategy and National Development Plan are squeezed for resources.
Confirmation yesterday that public spending remains well above target while tax revenues are at just 69.2 per cent of the last Budget target will mean Government backbenchers will have to sell a difficult budget for next year to their constituents.
A victory on Nice is desperately needed by the Government to steady nerves and restore some of the Taoiseach's lost authority. Defeat would cause a significant escalation of concern on the back benches over whether Mr Ahern is in the position of strength required to lead his party and Government undamaged through the next couple of years.
Speculation continued yesterday that a secret meeting had taken place on Tuesday involving Fianna Fáil figures to discuss whether Brian Cowen should replace Mr Ahern as party leader. Mr Cowen has dissociated himself from any such move.
A significant number of backbenchers contacted yesterday said they knew nothing of such a meeting. Several of the discontented said they would have expected to be invited to such a gathering, but weren't.
Their mood wasn't improved, however, by yesterday morning's radio performance by the Minister of State, Willie O'Dea, who suggested that the discontented were people with "bruised egos" as a result of their not being appointed to ministerial office.
"We all had to live with Willie's bruised ego for a while," remarked one, in reference to Mr O'Dea's very public disappointment in July after the Taoiseach decided not to elevate him to full Cabinet rank.
The discontented do indeed include people who were disappointed by Mr Ahern's choice of senior and junior Ministers.
But they also include some backbenchers - particularly among the 21 newly elected Fianna Fáil deputies -- who are genuinely taken aback by the level of hostility from voters in their constituencies to the Government over the state of the economy and the fallout from the Flood tribunal report.
Few backbenchers believe a defeat on Nice will trigger an immediate revolt. Rather they are looking forward to the next local government and European Parliament elections in 2004 as the real test of whether Mr Ahern has retained his position as the party's biggest electoral asset.
A poor performance then would very likely lead to an attempt to challenge him. However, if opinion polls show a consistently poor party performance between now and then, some Fianna Fáil TDs could decide they want a change before those elections.
To succeed, however, such a move would require the support of some senior figures rather than simply a group of backbenchers. The most likely contenders should a vacancy arise - Brian Cowen, Micheal Martin and Noel Dempsey - are said by colleagues to be very happy in their ministries.
Even if any of them was tempted, they would not associate themselves with a challenge unless they were reasonably confident of success.
All of this speculation involves looking many steps ahead. Backbenchers - including some of the discontented - queued up to speak on the record yesterday praising Mr Ahern's electoral value to the party. The backbench unhappiness is real, but a run of favourable events, well managed, would quell it.
The Taoiseach still has the opportunity to reassert control over the situation. But the next two years, much more so than the last five, will provide the real test of his appeal among the public and within his party.