The latest crime figures, published by the Minister for Justice yesterday, make for sobering reading. Overall "headline" or serious crimes are up 22 per cent on last year. Even more seriously, when this is compared with the 2000 figures, the increase over the past two years is 40 per cent.
Some categories of crime show a more dramatic increase than others. It is particularly worrying that assaults and sexual offences almost trebled over that period, while drug offences and larcenies increased by 50 per cent or more.
The figures for these offences are less likely to be affected by the changes in the method of recording crime introduced through the PULSE computer system in use by the Garda Síochána since 2000. Undoubtedly some of the increase in crime figures is accounted for by the more complete picture it gives, but this is more likely to be the case with less serious crimes.
Despite the teething problems with this system, it now provides us with a more reliable measurement of crimes reported to the Garda, and will allow for better analysis of crime trends in the future. This is to be welcomed. Combined with other recent measures, like the establishment of the Expert Group on Crime Statistics and the research being undertaken by the National Crime Council, it should allow for the development of an informed policy on crime and crime prevention.
Certainly, aspects of recent policy did not work. The figures published yesterday puncture the myth that there is an inverse relationship between the number of prisoners and the crime rate. They also cast doubt on the idea that the absolute increase in police numbers and resources over the past five years will lead to a reduction in crime.
The reasons for the growth in violence and sex crimes in our society are complex, and it will not be easy to devise a policy to combat it. Part of it is undoubtedly due to the absolute growth in the consumption of alcohol. Another reason is demographic. Our population has increased by eight per cent since 1996, and much of this is inward migration, both of Irish emigrants and immigrants. Many of these are in the age-group most likely to be both the victims and the perpetrators of crime. Where there are large numbers of young men, with a lot of disposable income and a tendency to spend it on drink, there will be increased crime.
A carefully calibrated policy will be necessary to bring about a reduction in crime, involving not only the criminal justice system, but laws and practices affecting drinking habits, the congregation of young people after hours, and early intervention with those most likely to commit crime.
It is also necessary to fight the fear of crime. These figures, sobering though they are, should not be the reason for panic. Outside some urban areas, at some times, most people are still safe in their homes and communities.