The Central Statistics Office (CSO) reported this week on the latest population estimates, confirming that there are now more than 5.5 million people living in the Republic.
Politicians immediately fixated on the implications for the number of TDs. Political geographer Adrian Kavanagh estimated that the Dáil would have to increase in size from the current 174 seats to somewhere in the range of 187-195 seats. This is because the Constitution requires a TD for at least every 30,000 of the population, even though with a relatively large (931,000) non-Irish population, the electorate for a general election, comprising only Irish and UK citizens, is significantly smaller.
Of course the Constitution should be changed by referendum to limit the size of the Dáil, but referendums have a nasty habit of blowing up in the face of governments. This one could get into all sorts of complicated immigration-related issues. “No plans,” says a Government insider, on the principle of why go looking for trouble.
But the implications of the CSO numbers are much more profound than the size of the Dáil – which is diverting for us political nerd-types (“OMG there’ll be an extra seat in Galway East!”) but not actually all that important in the greater scheme of things.
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Demographics are not necessarily destiny, but they play a large part in shaping it, and two important trends are evident in recent years. Both will change our politics.
Firstly, Ireland is not immune to the “baby bust” that has long been evident around the world, first in richer western countries but now also elsewhere, China especially. Here the decline is not quite so precipitous as some other places, but it’s sharp enough all the same.
Since 2010, the CSO reported, the number of births has continued to decline, with 55,000 people aged under one living in Ireland, a decrease of 19,900, or 27 per cent, in 16 years. The number of children aged under 14 has fallen below one million for the first time since 2014.
This will mean fewer teachers and special needs assistants are required within a relatively short period. In time, schools will close. For people trying to find school places or whose kids are sitting in overcrowded classrooms right now (or will be once the interminable school holidays end) the position a decade hence is no doubt irrelevant, but it’s relevant if you’re deciding how many teachers we need and what size the education budget will be.
At the same time, the number of older people continues to rise, driven by the huge birth rates of the mid-20th century, the ending of large-scale emigration as a solution to Ireland’s economic shortcomings and growing life expectancy. These are good things all round, but they do not come without cost.
[ ‘There is no such thing’: What if the ageing crisis narrative is wrong?Opens in new window ]
Pensions are expensive. Take one example: partly because of regular overtime and various allowances, gardaí are the best-paid workers in the public service, earning an average of €1,834 per week in the second quarter of this year, according to the CSO. Because of the often difficult and sometimes dangerous nature of the job, they qualify for a full pension after 30 years’ service (rather than the 40 years more typical across the public service). This means a garda who joined in 1996 at the age of 22 can retire this year at 52 on a full pension, worth 50 per cent of their final salary annually, along with a tax-free lump sum equivalent to 150 per cent of final salary. If he or she attains the average life expectancy, they will be retired for as long as they were working.
Other public servants retiring in their early 60s can look forward to 20 years or maybe a quarter century of retirement, paid for by the State.
This is all great if you’re a retiring garda or public servant. But I am afraid it is entirely unsustainable.
Most private pensions work differently, as they are funded by the savings of workers (and boosted by tax relief) during their working lives, whereas public sector pensions are paid out of current expenditure (pension contributions do not remotely cover the actual cost). But as those on private sector pensions also live longer, their savings will have to stretch further. So the demand for increases in the State old-age pension will become louder from an increasingly politically powerful lobby.
People will inevitably have to work longer, however politically unpalatable it may be to tell them that. Running away from this problem – started by Labour and Sinn Féin during the 2020 general election campaign and followed as quickly as they could by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – is a failure of nerve by all the parties for which future generations will pay dearly. The political system will have to face up to this sooner or later. Sooner would be better, and cheaper.
The second trend is that our population increase is now largely driven by immigration. People – especially the far right who froth at the mouth on social media at the sight of people of colour in Ireland – fixate on asylum seekers but they are a small minority of the arrivals here. Students, people on work visas and Irish people coming home are all much bigger groups than asylum seekers. Net migration is about 50,000 a year: high for a country of our size. And to deny a link between the relatively high level of immigration and the housing shortage is to deny maths.
Immigration is required to sustain public services, especially in healthcare. It’s also necessary to underpin economic growth. Surveys show people appreciate the benefits of immigration but are nervous about the impact of continuing high levels on society. The tension between the need for immigration and opposition to it seems certain to become more acute.
On all fronts, the politics of a changing Ireland is likely to get more complex.
