The UK’s “reset” agreement with the EU, unveiled on Monday, lowers the Irish Sea border much further than many observers had expected. It commits both sides to an agri-food deal with dynamic alignment to the EU’s rules and primacy for the EU’s court, two features controversial in British politics, or at least in Westminster politics.
Once this is implemented – Monday’s announcement is more of an agreement to agree – it will remove most paperwork and inspection for food, plants and animals entering Northern Ireland from Britain. Farmers, food producers and retailers have all expressed their delight.
Checks and paperwork remain, of course, including the Windsor Framework’s full set of requirements for manufactured goods. The UK has no intention of joining the EU’s customs union, so customs declarations still apply, although there are separate schemes to mitigate this for food suppliers.
Brussels appears to have tried throwing its weight around and London seems to have pushed back
A veterinary medicines sea border, due to come into effect at the end of this year and predicted to be a fiasco, has not been addressed by the reset deal. Reset talks were not the forum to do so, however. Issues specific to Northern Ireland have their own resolution mechanisms.
In March, the EU proposed adding its new artificial intelligence regulations to the Windsor Framework, to the bemusement of trade experts. The UK blocked this three weeks ago, and the question now goes to dispute resolution. It is intriguing that this all occurred during the reset negotiations. Brussels appears to have tried throwing its weight around and London seems to have pushed back. The British government continues to insist on full implementation of the Windsor Framework to demonstrate good faith to Brussels and build a better relationship overall. The final outcome on the AI argument will indicate the extent to which the reset requires a British rollover on Northern Ireland.
So far, reaction to Labour’s deal among conservative politicians and commentators has portrayed Northern Ireland as a victim
Whatever problems remain, Monday’s announcement sets a clear direction of travel. The UK will be moving ever closer to the EU, certainly for as long as the Labour Party is in government. This new dynamic will have its own formal mechanism through annual EU-UK summits, where more agreements to agree will presumably be agreed.
The direction of travel, rather than the content of any deal, is the true gift to unionism. For the first time in years it can point to a political trend in its favour, even if this only promises to undo part of the damage it has suffered since Brexit – damage it is widely seen to have brought upon itself.
In the zero-sum game of Northern Ireland politics, that should mean a setback for nationalism. Much of northern nationalism in particular has convinced itself that Brexit and the sea border will drive a terminal wedge into the union. This has fostered a degree of complacency and even contempt in some quarters for the hard work of advancing a united Ireland. While the Irish Government has risen above this with its Shared Island initiative, others in nationalism have bet the farm on a Brexit process that has now gone into reverse.
Predictably, unionism seems determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The TUV and prominent figures in the DUP have complained not only about the shortcomings of Monday’s deal but about the direction of travel, decrying it as a betrayal of Brexit. In effect, they are saying: “This does not fix everything, and when it fixes more things that will only make it worse.”
Such an argument only makes sense if the objective is a hard no-deal Brexit for Northern Ireland. Research published this month by Queen’s University Belfast shows unionist support for the Windsor Framework is falling. Although moderate unionists support the British government’s policy of a closer relationship with the EU, three-quarters of what the research termed “strong unionists” oppose it.
The final outcome on the AI argument will indicate the extent to which the reset requires a British rollover on Northern Ireland
So there is a large Brexiteer unionist constituency, yet the DUP cannot give these people what they want and they have lost faith in it to deliver regardless, as shown by the party’s declining vote. If the DUP embraced the direction of travel, it could begin putting failure behind it by selling a plausible, positive message.
If unionists do not seize the narrative, there is a danger of Brexiteers in Britain writing one for them. So far, reaction to Labour’s deal among conservative politicians and commentators has portrayed Northern Ireland as a victim, being used to drag the rest of the UK into the EU’s orbit. It is a short step from there to portraying Britain as a victim of Northern Ireland.
The DUP leadership is trying to hedge its bets. “The devil is in the detail,” party leader Gavin Robinson said of the reset deal – the same words used by Sinn Féin first minister Michelle O’Neill. He is mistaken. For unionists, damnation lies in obsessing over detail while ignoring the big picture.
