The texts and WhatsApp messages are flying around Government circles later and later these evenings as everyone tunes in at the end of the day in Dublin to what’s happening on the other side of the Atlantic, five hours behind.
It’s worse in Brussels, where you can add another hour to the time difference. As the Eurocrat class is trying to put its weary head down for the night, Donald Trump is only getting warmed up on his Truth Social account, ranting about China, illegal immigrants, the fake news media, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, the European Union (set up, as everyone knows, to screw over the United States) or announcing the latest lurch in his trade policy.
Ignoring Trump is not an option; he is the most powerful man in the world, his decisions have a direct impact both on the everyday lives of billions of people and on relations between states – and he is very keen to use that power for his own objectives. So politicians, Mandarins and Eurocrats all keep checking their phones late at night.
The trouble is, it is sometimes hard to discern what exactly Trump’s political objectives are, beyond Making America Great Again, a slogan equally brilliant and meaningless.
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“What do they want?” asks one Eurocrat. “Do they even know what they want?”
The astonishing gyrations in the White House over the past 10 days or so have not provided much evidence of a coherent strategy. But always look for the signal in the noise. And amid all the noise – and there is certainly a lot of it – there have also been important signals. There have, I think, been four of them.
Firstly, we learned that markets will constrain Trump.
Last week, as the bond markets reeled in turmoil and analysts warned of potentially existential threats to the US’s position as the rock of the global financial system, Trump retreated and slashed his tariffs, declaring a 90-day moratorium, except for China.
Opponents sneered at Trump for his U-turn after all the declarations that he wasn’t for turning. Steady on. It is probably a good thing that, when faced with driving his country over a fiscal cliff – and taking the world economy with it – Trump decided to jam on the brakes. This is not, I admit, a high bar for statesmanship, but we are where we are.
Secondly, the antipathy to the EU in the Trump administration is deep and enduring – almost a fundamental tenet of their belief system. Europeans are weak, cowardly, PATHETIC (as the leaked chat group had it), but also simultaneously cunning enough to inveigle the US into trade deals that conferred limitless unfair advantages on the Europeans. The latest to be on the receiving end of this diatribe was the unsuspecting president of El Salvador in the Oval Office on Monday. Wonder what he made of it.
Thirdly, as part of all that, the warm feelings Trump evinced towards Ireland during the St Patrick’s Day festivities in Washington – jolly and all as they were – will not save us. He is coming for our pharmaceutical industry – not just a massive employer, but a massive taxpayer here. Anytime Trump mentions the pharma industry now, he also mentions Ireland.
Fourthly, no matter how much he loathes the EU, it is not his primary target, China is. As a confidential briefing by Irish officials after Simon Harris’s meeting with commerce secretary Howard Lutnick made clear, the US is seeking to make countries choose between it and China. A trade agreement will not be possible with the US if you have normal trading relations with China, Lutnick suggested.
There have also been some signals from the US’s potential adversaries.
China, for its part, has made clear it will fight back. It has slapped tariffs on American goods in retaliation to Trump’s 145 per cent tariffs and this week it stopped exports of a range of rare earth minerals vital for manufacturing everything from electric cars and jet engines to drones and missiles.
There is a growing acceptance in Dublin and Brussels, meanwhile, that the EU will respond to US tariffs in a muscular fashion. Official statements say only that the EU continues to prepare countermeasures. But in several conversations this week, senior officials increasingly expect a tough response. They will look to show strength.
Taken together, all of these point to a protracted period of market instability and, at least initially, a global trade war.
Which brings us back to perhaps the most important question: how responsive will Trump be to the domestic political pressures that are likely to result from a trade war, a consequent inflation spike and a recession in the US? Howard Lutnick, JD Vance, Stephen Miller and other true believers around Trump have a very substantial tolerance for political unpopularity, at least in the short term. The man himself? I’m not so sure.
The benign scenario is that as a recession takes hold and Congressional Republicans fear for their seats, Trump pockets a few concessions and declares a great victory. That is what is hoped for in Brussels.
It is hoped for; but it is not expected. Everyone knows there is a darker, more threatening version of the future – where Trump, faced with the failure of efforts to bully the world into submission, looks for domestic scapegoats and foreign distractions. That is not a future any of us wish to contemplate. But we might as well admit it is entirely possible.
