OpinionThe Debate

Should Simon Harris call an early election? Gerard Howlin and Justine McCarthy debate

All attention is on when a general election should be called. Waiting until next spring carries risks – but so does an autumn election

Taoiseach Simon Harris at the RDS during the count for the European elections. Will Harris call an early general election? Photograph: Damien Storan/PA Wire
Taoiseach Simon Harris at the RDS during the count for the European elections. Will Harris call an early general election? Photograph: Damien Storan/PA Wire
Gerard Howlin
Justine McCarthy
Wed Jun 12 2024 - 06:00

Gerard Howlin: Talk of leading the Government to next March is heroic but foolish. It cannot be taken seriously

Simon Harris is the hero of the hour. He has whirled enthusiasm out of apathy in Fine Gael, and turned what would have been further decline into modest progress. More importantly, he regained momentum.

The local and European elections leave a changed landscape, and now all attention is focused on when an election will be called. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have climbed out of a downward spiral. The Greens have escaped the worst and some bad news has been tempered by good. What counts most, from the perspective of the timing of the election, is the reduced status of Sinn Féin. It is no longer the mainstay of an alternative government. Until the tide turns again, which it could at any time, Mary Lou McDonald is not an alternative taoiseach.

That fundamental shift in circumstances is the big win for the Government parties. But the greatest risk is that Harris might believe his own hype. Political momentum is a shifting wind, and easily lost. The gains for the two larger parties bring them just above where they were in the 2020 general election, which was then a stunningly bad outcome for both. The next general election will be different from Friday’s poll, in that people must then choose a government, which may help the Coalition partners. It is fundamentally different too because turnout will be much greater, which brings less committed voters out to vote. The uncertainty of Irish politics increases all the time.

Talk of leading the Government full term to next March is heroic but foolish, if indeed it is taken seriously by those in Government who say it. It is a necessary mantra of course, until the end. In theory, the Taoiseach can call an election now, but that is extremely unlikely. The two choices would seem to be after delivering a budget in the autumn, or to brave the winter and trust in providence. Bertie Ahern successfully brought two governments to the very end, but that was in the longest days of the year in June.

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[ The Irish Times view: an early general election is now more likely ]

January and February are not cheerful, and after Christmas personal finances are low, but annual bills have piled up. Budget largesse may be in people’s pockets, but it may be like eaten bread, forgotten. To get there the Government must spend capacity and political capital fighting possibly several byelections caused by the election of TDs to the European Parliament. The worst day in Government may be better than the best day in Opposition but by the time the clocks go back on October 27th, there will be little of either left. What remains is increasing risk, in return for diminishing advantage.

The risks are twofold. One is an adverse event, the consequences of which the Government cannot escape. The motion of no confidence in then minister for health Simon Harris that triggered an election with such fateful consequences on February 8th, 2020, is an example of that. It deeply damaged Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil who dallied too long in a confidence-and-supply agreement with them.

Then there is the risk that the enthusiasm he has generated, based on frenetically intensive performance politics, cannot last. McDonald is an example of that. Nothing is agreed yet among the Government parties, and Harris cannot afford a disorderly demobilisation, but for now he has short-term advantages. After the budget and before the winter would seem to be the sweet spot when he can say to a changeable electorate, with whom he is still on good terms, that business is done, and it is time to go. It is the single decision that indelibly marks the judgment of a Taoiseach.

Gerard Howlin is an Irish Times columnist

Justine McCarthy: Voters would not reward Harris for an opportunistic U-turn on the election

There are many good reasons for the Taoiseach to call an early general election but they are all overwhelmed by one big reason not to – because he said he wouldn’t. For the past four days, broadcasters have been goading the three party leaders in Government to admit they are considering the cut-and-run option but Harris, Micheál Martin and Eamon Ryan have stood firm, again and again. They are determined to go the full five years, they say. Therefore, their only option is to sit tight till the spring.

This is not simply an ethical imperative. It is the politically savvy thing to do. Run to the country before the winter and Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party will be punished for their cynical opportunism. Voters don’t like being taken for mugs. If any insight for general election planning can be extrapolated from the local elections it is that more than 40 per cent of voters kept faith with the Government. To throw that back in their faces would be asking for trouble. You cannot hold the centre against extremes by manipulating the people’s democratic exercise for your party’s selfish advantage, or by showing that your word is worthless.

Sinn Féin could teach the Government about the perils of U-turns. Reversing its position on the Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill and instantly reneging on its promise to re-run the family and care referendums were among recent breaches of promise that came back to bite the main Opposition party last Friday. A party’s word is not only its bond; it should be its brand.

[ The timing of a general election - what options does Simon Harris have for going to the people? ]

This year, voters have already been summoned to the polls for two referendums and two elections – three if you live in Limerick. To be required to go again, especially when it is unnecessary, would be testing the electorate’s patience at a time when low turnout is a cause of concern.

Commentators – including former taoiseach Bertie Ahern – favour an autumn election to avoid the winter chill. If we Irish were as obsessed about the climate as we are about the weather our carbon emissions might actually meet their 2030 target. The weather, unpredictable as it can be, is a red herring for the scheduling of a general election. For each person who enjoys the golden leaf-fall of autumn, there is someone else who prefers the optimism spring brings with its lengthening days and summer of promise.

The popular scenario envisaged by those who are urging an early election is that the Government should hang up the “closed” sign after a fast-forwarded Budget 2025 in September, followed by the Finance Bill, so that voters will show their appreciation for what would have to be baskets of goodies announced by the finance and spending Ministers, Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe. This scenario takes no account of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council’s warning to the Government last week that a giveaway budget would overheat the economy and its reiterated accusation that the Cabinet is engaging in “fiscal gimmickry” by breaching the national spending rule.

[ Sinn Féin was the shock absorber of Irish politics. It’s worn out ]

The budget is not the sole to-do item in the Cabinet in-tray. Among the most urgently awaited measures are: the establishment of both the Covid inquiry and the Just Transition Commission; a decision on a funding model for RTÉ; Seanad electoral reform on foot of a Supreme Court ruling; the passage of the Supports for Survivors of Residential Institutional Abuse Bill; the Defamation Amendment Bill; and a new Mental Health Bill.

Any Bills that have not been passed by the Oireachtas before the general election will fall, and tens of thousands of voters will be adversely affected. These matters will inevitably be issues on the campaign trail. One of the ostensibly persuasive arguments for an early election is to deprive Sinn Féin of time to regather after its dismal local elections. The counterargument is that Sinn Féin was on a downward trajectory before last Friday. That could continue into the spring in an ever-fragmenting landscape where new parties are multiplying like rabbits. More time might just as easily suit the Government parties.

My bet is a general election on Friday, March 7th.

Justine McCarthy is an Irish Times columnist