Age shouldn’t stop Biden being re-elected – but his disastrous campaigning might

As expected, President Joe Biden has announced his intention to seek a second term of office. Despite speculation that he might serve only one term, it always seemed likely that he would try to retain the dream job that he worked his whole life to attain. And, though his candidacy has some obvious weaknesses, he is still likely to be re-elected.

At first glance, Biden appears to be a vulnerable incumbent. Over 50 per cent of Americans disapprove of his performance as president. One poll shockingly showed that even a majority of Democrats want him to step down after his first term in office. The biggest concern people cite about him is his age. At 80, Biden is already the oldest president in United States history. He would be 86 at the end of a second term in office. If he appears lethargic or lacks mental sharpness, then he will indeed be vulnerable to Republican attack.

This is a particular problem given the Biden limitation too few people mention: he has never been a good campaigner. He excels at retail politics but struggles in the media-driven hothouse of a national campaign. Gaffe-prone, he flamed out of the 1988 and 2008 Democratic primaries. His start to the 2020 Democratic primary was disastrous: he finished fourth in the first two contests. He was saved only by Barack Obama and the party establishment. They rallied around him as the best alternative to Bernie Sanders, who appeared, at one point, to be the likely nominee. In the 2020 general election, Biden benefited from the Covid lockdown which allowed him to campaign from the basement of his house.

Biden’s weaknesses are mitigated, however. We are living in an era of disgust with politics in which no president is likely to have positive approval ratings. At least the affable Biden has incited less passionate hatred than did his predecessors. He may be in his 80s but age is more than just a number. If he can convey even half the vitality he showed on his recent visit to Ireland, he will be just fine. And campaigning as an incumbent is different: Biden can make his case simply by doing his job as president.

Everyone knew what Biden’s Irish visit was about apart from the sulking British press

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Justine McCarthy: British media was right - Joe Biden’s Ireland belongs to Dark Ages

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Joe Biden’s visit to Ireland contained some hard messages for us

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US media take dim view of Biden’s ‘taxpayer-funded family reunion’ in Ireland

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Most of all, though, he benefits from the absence of any strong alternative. He is unlikely to face any serious challenge for his party’s nomination, which is historically a sign of strength for an incumbent. Indeed, his greatest political accomplishment as president has been to unify his own party. In 2016 and 2020, the Democrats were deeply divided between a centrist establishment and a rising left wing.

Though Biden ran as the candidate of the Democrats’ right wing, in office he adopted much of the left’s agenda. He did not get all his proposed policies through Congress but he has a considerable record of legislative accomplishment, especially given the razor-thin majority his party had in his first two years in office: Covid support payments, a major infrastructure bill and the omnibus Inflation Reduction Act designed to create better-paying jobs and tackle global warming.

The Democrats’ left wing realises that challenging Biden in the primary is not their best strategy. Rather, they will devote their energies toward achieving the Congressional majorities needed to pass the kind of legislation Biden would introduce in his second term, addressing issues such as abortion rights, voting rights, economic inequality and the climate emergency.

[ Republican Ron DeSantis looking increasingly like a long shot for party’s presidential nomination ]

In the general election, Biden appears likely to face a weak Republican opponent. The most likely Republican nominee is Donald Trump. If so, then the election is likely to be another referendum on Trump, who still dominates American political discourse. Trump could win but the 2018, 2020, 2022 elections all highlighted his unpopularity. And the Trump of 2024 appears a weaker candidate than the Trump of 2020 after his election denialism, the January 6th insurrection and the investigation into it, and now his criminal indictment.

Biden’s second most likely opponent is Florida governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis could sell himself as a younger, more dynamic candidate who could make a contest with Biden about dissatisfaction with the political status quo. His candidacy, however, would face its own pitfalls. In particular, he would have to survive a bruising primary campaign against Trump. Trump would be liable to reject the legitimacy of DeSantis’s victory, possibly refuse to endorse him against Biden and, maybe, even mount a third party campaign. DeSantis also lacks Trump’s charisma and entertainment value.

An old adage in politics is that you can’t beat something with nothing. In 2024, Biden’s biggest strength may be his opponents’ weaknesses.

Daniel Geary is Mark Pigott Associate Professor in American History at Trinity College Dublin