Supporters of Mr David Trimble appear confident his deputy leader, Mr John Taylor, will rally to his side this morning to help secure a pro-agreement victory at the Ulster Unionist Council meeting in Belfast.
However, anti-agreement sources insisted the final result on whether the party should return to government with Sinn Fein was "touch and go", with one senior MP telling The Irish Times: "I believe he [Mr Trimble] can be beaten."
Another usually reliable source said he believed the No camp now had the support of about 45 per cent of UUC delegates - suggesting an advance on the position reached in March with the Rev Martin Smyth's leadership challenge, when he confounded most predictions by taking 43 per cent of the vote. That projection was mirrored by a leading Trimble supporter, who forecast a victory for the UUP leader in the region of 54 per cent.
Amid increasingly feverish speculation, the recurring suggestion was that 40 to 60 "undecideds" would determine Mr Trimble's fate and that of the Belfast Agreement. Both sides yesterday agreed they did not want a protracted debate. It is expected the UUC president, Sir Josias Cunningham, will call about six speakers for and against the leadership motion and amendment. Key Trimble supporters yesterday appeared convinced Mr Taylor would declare himself satisfied with British government assurances on the question of the RUC and the name of the new police service.
A long-awaited British statement on its attitude to amendments to the published Police Bill - to allow the "incorporation" of RUC in the so-called "title deeds" of the Bill - failed to materialise, amid ongoing speculation that it had been effectively blocked by the weight of Irish/ SDLP/Sinn Fein opposition.
However, in a series of interviews, Mr Trimble declared himself satisfied that previous statements by the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, had addressed unionist concerns.