Trump: the first 100 days, can he deliver?

In Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, in late October, site of a great battle of the American civil war and perhaps the most famous speech in history, Donald Trump laid out his plans for the first 100 days of his presidency. But how realistic are they and can he actually implement what he has promised?

Some of his plans to “make America great again” will take years, even on his own terms. Many will require new acts of Congress, which means that the Trump administration will have to win support in both Houses, accept the compromises and delay that are part of the legislative process, even with a Republican majority.

Others declared Trump policies – including some of the most dramatic ones, such as stepping back from Nato’s guarantee of mutual defence and building a wall on Mexican border – are not covered in his 100 day plan.

But others he will have to power to introduce immediately if he chooses.

Trumps first 100 days plan is divided in four groups or sections of actions:

• propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;
• a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);
• a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;
• a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;
• a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
• a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections

Can he do it? Will he do it?

Yes and no.

Trump can propose anything he likes but amending the Constitution is extremely difficult, requiring large majorities in Congress and amongst the states, and is probably impossible in such an evenly divided country.

Restrictions on lobbyists would mostly require Congressional co-operation, though there is nothing to stop Trump from banning his staff and senior government officials from meeting them. Though with so many of Washington’s political class either aspiring or former lobbyists -there is something of a revolving door between the public and private sector – such a proposal is likely to meet stiff internal resistance.

Still, he did promise to “drain the swamp”.

• I will announce my intention to renegotiate Nafta or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205;
• I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership;
• I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator;
• I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and US trade representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately;
• I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal;
• lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward;
• cancel billions in payments to UN climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure

Can he do it? Will he do it?

He will do a lot of it.

Legally, the president has significant powers in the area of trade, and he can trigger the withdrawal from trade agreements. However, the changes do not take place immediately, and there is likely to be negotiations with Canada and Mexico before they are implemented.

Labelling China a currency manipulator - although the Treasury Department declined to do so as recently as last month, would mean the president was empowered to enter discussions with the country and seek potential penalties. That would potentially risk a trade war with the US’s biggest trading partner, though Trump has repeatedly talked about introducing new tariffs on Chinese goods anyway. He could not introduce all this immediately, though he could begin the process.

President Obama has made extensive use of presidential powers in the environmental area, and many of these executive actions could be reversed by Trump. Certainly, the oil and gas industry is ecstatic about Trump’s election, and shares in the industry rocketed on his election.

Some environmental laws would require congressional action, but US experts have pointed out that the Trump administration could relax environmental restrictions by going after the people who enforce them. Many of the agencies implement regulations – including the Department of the Interior -- will be now be led by presidential appointees. It is a feature of the American system that most senior civil and public servants are appointed by the president, and can change when a new administration takes control.

• cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama;
• begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States;
• cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities;
• begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back;
• suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting

Can he do it? Will he do it?

Yes and yes.

President Barack Obama used executive orders to implement many changes that he was unable to get a Republican-controlled Congress to agree to. Trump can simply rescind those orders. The president also has extensive powers in the areas of immigration and this is, after all, Trump's signature policy. For example, a provision in the Immigration Nationality Act allows a President to bar specific or whole classes of immigrants who are deemed dangerous to US interests.

Trump will certainly begin the process to nominate a Supreme Court judge - one of the highest priorities for conservative activists, many of whom dream of overturning the Roe vs Wade decision that legalised abortion in the US (or, more accurately, prevented state’s from outlawing abortion). Supreme Court judges sit for life, so the effect of Trump’s judicial appointments - and there are other Supreme Court vacancies expected in the coming years - will long outlast his presidency.

• Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act;
• End The Offshoring Act;
• American Energy & Infrastructure Act;
• School Choice And Education Opportunity Act;
• Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act;
• Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act;
• End Illegal Immigration Act;
• Restoring Community Safety Act;
• Restoring National Security Act;
• Clean up Corruption in Washington Act

Can he do it? Will he do it?

Some of it.

Trump’s proposed legislative agenda will take years to push through Congress, but he will certainly begin the process to implement his headline policies - a massive tax cut, an infrastructure spending programme, the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. However, even some Republicans are likely to be wary that cutting taxes and increasing spending would explode the deficit and, in the longer term, America’s national debt. Issuing debt also requires lenders to have confidence that it will be repaid, and markets are likely to be nervous about the damaging effects of a slowdown in trade because of Trump’s economic nativism.

The new president will require more than just the ability to persuade congress - he will need to persuade the markets.