No sign of a Syrian peace process to end war as fractured opposition argues

Signs that western governments are rethinking their policy towards the Syrian crisis have been multiplying since last September’s chemical weapons deal and the increasingly prominent role being played by al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in the war against President Bashar al-Assad.

Officially, the position of the US, Britain, France and the Gulf states is that Assad has no future and must step down. However, how that is to be achieved is unclear. That demand will be the centrepiece of next week’s Geneva peace conference, which is supposed to set up a Syrian transitional governing body “by mutual consent”. But, barring surprises, there is no sign of either a “peace process” that will end the war or of a conclusive military victory.

Unofficially, it seems clear that Assad isn’t quitting any time soon, certainly not by agreement with the highly fragmented opposition – whose main, western-backed element may yet decide to boycott Geneva. It’s hardly surprising, then, that western intelligence agencies have been again talking discreetly to the government in Damascus – about the risk of jihadi fighters travelling from Europe to Syria (and, even worse, back again), and about hostages – or that the Syrian government is so keen to advertise the fact.

Faisal Miqdad, Syria’s deputy foreign minister, cannily used a BBC interview to reveal enough to bolster the argument that Assad is a safer bet than al-Qaeda, and to play on western doubts and divisions. Other leaked details about tentative diplomatic approaches by Germany, Spain and Austria appear to emanate from Syrian sources. The calculation must be that where Europeans venture first the US will follow.

Anglophone
Miqdad, articulate and anglophone, is the Syrian minister most easily accessible to foreign journalists. When I spoke to him in Damascus last April his line was that Britain and France were "directly or indirectly" backing al-Qaeda. His view is that the uprising was about "terrorism" from the start in March 2011, even when protesters, from all sects and communities, wanted to topple a repressive dictatorship in the spirit of the Arab spring.

This narrative ignores huge state violence as well as support for Syria from Iran, Hizbullah and Russia. The Syrians appear to be trying to play on disagreements between western (and Arab) foreign ministries and security services – whose focus is on counter-terrorism. – (Guardian service)