Eyes on Venezuela’s army for signs of loyalty shift as crisis fears worsen

Venezuela remained locked in crisis over the weekend with rival presidents disputing power and all eyes still firmly on the military for signs it might be about to abandon incumbent Nicolás Maduro in favour of opposition leader Juan Guaidó who declared himself president last week.

Top commanders within Venezuela have so far backed Maduro but Guaidó’s efforts to overthrown him received a boost on Saturday when the Venezuelan military attaché in Washington recognised him as his country’s legitimate ruler.

In a televised message announcing his decision Col Jose Luis Silva called on his colleagues back home to abandon the Chavista regime whose leaders “have turned themselves into multimillionaires at the expense of the people”. The defence ministry in Caracas responded by tweeting a photo of Silva with the word “traitor” stamped across it.

There are growing signs of discontent within the junior ranks of the military at Maduro’s mishandling of the crisis but many senior officers are deeply implicated in drug trafficking and other criminal activities and are thought to be nervous about the implications of regime change.

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The European Union has given Maduro eight days to call free and fair elections or else it threatens to join the US, Canada and a majority of South American states and recognise Guaidó. Maduro rejected the ultimatum in an interview with the Turkish affiliate of CNN. “They have behaved arrogantly. Nobody can give us an ultimatum,” he said.

“The European elites do not reflect the opinion of the European people.”

‘Forces of freedom’

The last relatively free elections held in the country in 2015 for the national assembly delivered a crushing victory for the opposition.

Since then the Chavista regime has held two polls widely dismissed as rigged after ample evidence of fraud emerged. The two disputed polls were designed to undercut the opposition-controlled assembly and install Maduro for a second six-year term despite the implosion of the country’s economy.

The US sought to ratchet up the international pressure on Maduro at a Saturday session of the UN Security Council. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo demanded the international community pick sides in the dispute. “No more delays. No more games. Either you stand with the forces of freedom or you’re in league with Maduro and his mayhem,” he said.

At the session, Venezuela’s foreign minister Jorge Arreaza accused the US of seeking to provoke a civil war in his country with its recognition of Guaidó. Russia came to Maduro’s defence accusing Washington of attempting “to engineer a coup d’etat” and with China prevented any vote on the crisis from being held. Moscow and Beijing are among the last props holding up the Chavista regime, which is deeply indebted to the two permanent security council members.

The rush by leading states in South America led by Brazil and Argentina, in what looks like a co-ordinated offensive, to recognise Guaidó comes as fears in the region mount that the chaos in Venezuela could provoke an unprecedented regional crisis.

Mass exodus

Already three million people – almost one in 10 of the population – have fled the country according to the UN High Commission for Refugees, as mismanagement and corruption during 20 years of Chavismo have left the economy destroyed, its once-booming oil industry on its knees and the government unable to either service its debts or come up with enough hard currency to import sufficient food and medicines.

The crisis has left many Venezuelans facing hunger at the same time as the public health system has broken down, leading to the return of diseases once considered eradicated from the country.

After years of attempting to negotiate a compromise between the Chavista regime and the opposition, neighbouring countries look to have run out of patience with Maduro. They worry that a final implosion of the country’s economy could spark a mass exodus from the country that would dwarf that which has already taken place, putting further stain on those neighbours who have already taken in large numbers of refugees.

Colombia already hosts one million Venezuelans with more arriving each day. In the Brazilian state of Roraima, there have already been clashes between locals and Venezuelan refugees.