Analysis: Uncertainty over who was responsible for Bangkok bombing

After Monday’s bombing at the Erawan shrine at the Ratchaprasong intersection in Bangkok’s heart, Thais are asking themselves if it was a result of growing internal political tensions or external forces taking their battle to the streets of the Thai capital.

Some believe it could be part of internal unrest between the ruling junta, which came to power in a military coup in May last year, current prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, and the Red Shirt backers of ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

The Ratchaprasong intersection, where the bombing took place, is a politically charged site. It was the focal point of months of anti-government protests in 2010 by Red Shirts, before a crackdown by the military in which dozens were killed and many sites around the city, including shopping centres near the intersection, were set ablaze.

Ousted

Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, became prime minister after the crackdown but following months of unrest, she too was ousted.

The military government said it will most likely not stage elections for another two years, and it is seeking to impose a constitution that will allow emergency rule rather than a democratically elected government. Going against the theory that the Red Shirts were behind the bombing is the fact that tourism is too important to Thailand for any side on the political spectrum to threaten it so fundamentally by blowing up a popular visitor site.

There were many Chinese tourists among the dead, and Thaksin comes from the largely Chinese area near Chiang Mai in the north. He would not risk antagonising the Chinese government by allowing his supporters to kill its citizens overseas.

Intimidate

"Looking back at past political violence in Bangkok, there has never been a devastating bombing like this one. Most were meant to intimidate, to cause panic, not to kill," Veera Prateepchaikul, former editor of the Bangkok Post, wrote in a commentary.

Bombs are rare in Bangkok, with the last major explosions in the capital taking place on New Year’s Eve at the end of 2006. Then, a series of bombs at celebrations around the city killed at least three people and wounded dozens, triggering yet another period of political unrest in the country.

Bombings tend to happen more in the south of the country, where Muslim separatists are fighting a low-level insurgency that flares from time to time.

Some believe that the bombing at the Erawan shrine could be part of that conflict, with the southern separatists taking the fight to the capital.

However, no one has yet claimed responsibility, and that has raised doubts over any such theory.

The Erawan shrine is a Hindu shrine, but is used mostly by Buddhists and attracts tourists from Hong Kong in particular.

Other possible suspects include the Muslim Uighur minority in China, which is angry with Thailand for deporting 100 of its people back to China in July.

Or could this be the work of Islamic State militants or other international extremists?