Where to now as Belfast Agreement seems over?

Analysis: Mr David Trimble offered us a tantalising glimpse of Tony Blair's current mood and disposition yesterday when he emerged…

Analysis: Mr David Trimble offered us a tantalising glimpse of Tony Blair's current mood and disposition yesterday when he emerged from their meeting in Downing Street, writes Frank Millar, London Editor.

"The Prime Minister is clearly saying to us 'we are in a different situation to where we were before' - and I think there is a reality there," said the Ulster Unionist leader.

But how much reality? Indeed, which reality informs the thinking of Number 10 as it ponders the fall-out from the Northern Bank robbery, the implications of the latest IRA statements, and Mr Trimble's warning of further degradation of what remains of the political process in Northern Ireland?

Mr Blair and Mr Trimble might be agreed that they are now "in a different situation". But if the Ulster Unionist leader has moved to a significantly different place - and it seems clear he has - is he confident that the British Prime Minister is in it with him?

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This is a serious question, as Mr Trimble later acknowledged to The Irish Times. The answer? The UUP leader readily admitted he did not know.

In fairness, the impression Mr Trimble took away yesterday was similar to that with which SDLP leader Mark Durkan left Downing Street on Tuesday night. SDLP sources said they formed the impression that Mr Blair was now seriously interested in finding an "alternative" political way forward.

And Northern Ireland Secretary Paul Murphy appeared to leave all options open yesterday as he referred to the various ideas currently canvassed by the DUP, Ulster Unionists and the SDLP.

Yet Mr Murphy gave the impression of going through the motions. And it is almost certainly his calculation, and that of Mr Blair's advisers in Number 10, that there will be no unionist/SDLP consensus on any of those alternatives.

It seems clear that neither the DUP nor the Ulster Unionists will entertain the SDLP plan to restore the financial and legislative powers of the Assembly while giving the Executive function to Commissioners to be appointed by the British and Irish governments. Mr Trimble (unlike some of his senior colleagues) is equally opposed to the original DUP plan for a Corporate Assembly, which he believes was planned (and sold) as a way of bypassing the vexed question of IRA decommissioning.

Former Deputy First Minister Séamus Mallon has spoken equally passionately against an alternative DUP proposal to give the Assembly a consultative or scrutiny role in relation to Direct Rule ministers.

Like Mr Trimble, the SDLP would see this as reward for, and encouragement to, "the politics of opposition". The SDLP, in turn, seems set to resist DUP and UUP invitations to leave Sinn Féin behind and join them in a voluntary coalition at Stormont.

In an important speech last weekend, Mr Trimble argued that the existence in the Belfast Agreement of provision to exclude any party not committed to exclusively peaceful and democratic means, "shows that an inclusive Executive (i.e. with Sinn Féin) was not an overriding requirement". And in Downing Street yesterday he called for a renewed emphasis "on building-up the moderate centre ground", arguing that "the notion some people had that by bringing in the extremes they would somehow resolve the problems. . . that just has not worked."

However, the SDLP calculation is that a decision now to enter a voluntary coalition with either unionist party would be the way to guaranteed obliteration by Sinn Féin in the forthcoming British general election.

Indeed, not the least of Mr Trimble's problems in preparing for his party's own do-or-die battle with the DUP, is that the nationalist/republican contest may incline the SDLP to a policy of an ever-deeper "greening" of Direct Rule within the context of an enhanced Anglo-Irish framework. Time, as Mr Blair and Mr Trimble ruefully reflected yesterday, is not on their side.

"We are agreed this is not a situation that can be postponed or left until after an election," the UUP leader reported, adding that to do so "would be to see the situation degrade further".

Yet further degradation it seems likely to be. The lingering hope in London and Dublin will be that after the election the "pragmatic wing" of a likely victorious DUP will return to the pre-Christmas agenda.

But the conclusion of that failed negotiation, and the processes leading to it, confirmed that the Paisley party is still in charge and has had its distrust of republican intentions mightily reinforced. Moreover, even as it plots his destruction, the Paisley party will be watching how Mr Trimble positions his party for the election. And, barring some unforeseen breakthrough with the SDLP, that will not be to the left of the so-called DUP "modernisers."

While not saying "never", Mr Trimble has as good as said the all-inclusive Good Friday experiment is over, and explicitly that an agenda providing for the devolution of policing and justice powers is off the table. Those hoping for new windows of opportunity following the election should ask themselves - is it likely Dr Paisley will seek the final eclipse of the Ulster Unionist Party by offering the more moderate alternative?

Wherever Mr Blair is, and for all their rivalries, the two unionist parties are converging on that different place.