Middle East: Palestine's ruling Islamist group is now in danger of losing its popular support, writes Michael Jansen.
Two actions taken by Hamas over the weekend could undermine its popular support and weaken the government formed by the Islamic movement after it won a majority of seats in the Palestinian legislature in January's election.
The first was a decision taken on Saturday in retaliation for the killing by Israel on Friday of seven Palestinian bathers on a Gaza beach. This was to end its unilateral cessation of hostilities against Israel. Hamas followed up this decision by firing rockets into a town in southern Israel, drawing Israeli strikes on Gaza.
Hamas, which began observing an informal ceasefire in August 2005, killed 250 Israelis after the second Intifada erupted in September 2000.
The second action was an announcement made yesterday that Sheikh Abdel Khaliq al-Natsche of Hamas and Sheikh Bassam al-Saadi of Islamic Jihad had retracted their signatures on the 18-point programme for the creation of a united national front.
The document, issued on May 25th by four high-profile Palestinians imprisoned in Israel, called for the creation of a Palestinian state in all the territory occupied by Israel in 1967, unification of resistance groups, and negotiations with Israel conducted by Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.
Hamas rejects the document on the ground that calling for a state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem would imply recognition of Israel in the boundaries attained before it captured these areas.
While Hamas's ideology holds that all of Palestine should become an Islamic state, its leaders have adopted a more realistic approach by saying that the movement is prepared to coexist with Israel if it evacuates the occupied territories.
Last-ditch talks on the "prisoners' document" between prime minister Ismail Haniyeh and Mr Abbas failed to resolve differences, prompting the presi- dent to proclaim July 26th as the date of the referendum.
Mr Haniyeh rejects both the document and the referendum, arguing that it is designed to oust the legally elected Hamas government. However, if agreement is achieved by dialogue by the end of July, Mr Abbas will cancel the referendum.
Mr Abbas had hoped that the referendum would end ongoing hostilities between Fatah and Hamas gunmen. Seventeen Palestinians have been killed in factional shoot-outs and bombings during the past month. But conflict could continue.
Mr Abbas also believes that the document's adoption and the formation of a national unity government could end the isolation of the Palestinian Authority.
Since the Hamas cabinet was formed, foreign donors have shunned and halted financial support for the authority, starving it of funds to pay its 165,000 employees whose families depend on their salaries.
This has created severe deprivation among poor Palestinians and the expansion of the UN relief role to an additional 100,000 people.
Mr Abbas counts on strong popular support for the prisoners' document. The latest poll shows that 77 per cent of Palestinians approve the document and back negotiations.
Hamas's approval rating has fallen from 45 to 35 per cent since the parliamentary poll, and is likely to fall further if the movement continues to pursue confrontational policies which deepen disunity and prompt punitive strikes from Israel.
Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert says that the document cannot be regarded as a basis for negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel and dismisses it as a tool in an internal Palestinian power struggle.
But if the proposal is endorsed in the referendum, it will be hard for Mr Olmert to ignore it because of the implicit recognition it accords Israel within boundaries recognised by the international community.