Weak campaign sparks fears of Polish EU referendum failure

POLAND: Leading political observers in Poland are worried that the country's referendum on EU accession this weekend could fail after a lacklustre government campaign they say repeated the mistakes of Ireland's first Nice Treaty referendum.

Opinion polls show a majority of Poland's 29 million voters in favour of joining the EU during this weekend's two-day poll. However there is a danger that less than 50 per cent of the electorate will turn out to vote, rendering the poll invalid, something observers blame on a Yes campaign that was driven by emotion and not information.

"The government's campaign had no clear notion and no clear message," one government adviser told The Irish Times, drawing comparisons with the first Nice Treaty campaign. "The campaign was based on the hope that everything will go smoothly and on \ opinion poll results."

The critical view is shared by many political commentators, who say the campaign and the attitude of the government is similar to that in Ireland before the first Nice Treaty referendum and the assumption that people would come out to vote 'Yes'.

"I think the government information campaign was chaotic and not planned at all," said Prof Lena Kolarska-Botinska, head of the Institute for Public Affairs in Warsaw.

She said the campaign concentrated too little on information and too much on personalities and media- and city-based events. The government hopes it has put in place enough measures to combat low turnout with two days of polling and an announcement of voter turnout tonight which should increase turnout on tomorrow's second day of polling.

An opinion poll released on Thursday showed that 80.9 per cent of voters would say 'Yes'), while 68 per cent said they would definitely participate. Other polls show lower turnout and more voters against accession. If turnout falls short of 50 per cent, the two houses of parliament would agree to EU membership by qualified majority. Politicians hope this emergency option will not be required as it risks tainting Poland's EU membership and might necessitate horse trading between parties. The government is hopeful that voters will ignore recent political scandals that have tainted its popularity and domestic concerns like the 18 per cent unemployment rate to vote for accession.

President Aleksander Kwasniewski's speech on Thursday night to mark the end of campaigning reflected concerns about turnout.

"I urge and ask you all to go to the polls and say 'Yes'. But I also encourage those who want to say 'No' to do so. Let's do everything possible to make sure that this referendum reflects our democratic maturity," he said. The No campaign, headed by the conservative League of Polish Families, suffered a series set-back last week when Pope John Paul II urged his fellow Poles to vote for accession. But there is mixed opinion in Poland about the helpfulness of the pope's last-minute intervention.

"The Pope's statement will demobilise those who were going to vote against and the undecideds, which could result in a lower than expected turnout, perhaps even below 50 per cent," said Dr Robert Sobiech, a professor at the Institute of Applied Social Sciences of Warsaw University.

"But I am also optimistic and Poles have a characteristic to mobilise in critical moments. This vote might be one of them."

On the streets of Warsaw yesterday the mood was more of resignation than excitement ahead of today's historic vote, even among those planning to vote for EU accession. "I will vote yes although I am not very enthusiastic about it," said Pavel Novacki (26).