Vintage performances mask growing uncertainty

The SDLP faithful were in pretty good heart at the weekend, looking to the future with a mixture of apprehension and confidence…

The SDLP faithful were in pretty good heart at the weekend, looking to the future with a mixture of apprehension and confidence, reflecting on the past with pride, and, more perplexingly, trying to make sense of the problems of today.

"30 Years", proclaimed the banners in the conference hall of the Slieve Donard Hotel, Newcastle, Co Down. This was another milestone for the party and was celebrated in a very effective and funny conference video featuring a grand cast, including Bill Clinton, Bertie Ahern, Mo Mowlam, John Bruton, Seamus Heaney, and Bono and the Edge. The fact that the party has survived 30 difficult, often violent, politically frustrating years, was indeed a cause for celebration for SDLP folk, and there was no shortage of festivity in the hotel. The party's five ministers were paraded for the 400 members present. A "class act" was how Seamus Mallon described them. There was a good age mix at the conference, and evidence of plenty of young talent - although there were not too many young faces at the top table.

John Hume spoke of how the SDLP analysis bore fruit in the Belfast Agreement, and both he and Mr Mallon urged Sinn Fein and the IRA, and the Ulster Unionists, to apply common sense and mutually resolve the row over North-South Ministerial Council meetings.

The weekend was also a time to take stock, and to consider imminent difficult choices on policing. On Tuesday, the Police (Northern Ireland) Bill gets the rubber stamp in the House of Commons. No more changes, the British government insists. "We are where we are," as one official said, semi-biblically.

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Sinn Fein has signalled its rejection of the Bill, but the SDLP is holding fire. And that is interesting in itself. In his keynote speech on Friday night, Mr Mallon said of the reform proposals: "We are ready to work this, if it is workable."

In his leader's address on Saturday, Mr Hume said he wanted to see Patten implemented in full but, perhaps critically, he added that on policing "it is the SDLP which has blended principle and practicality in coming to an approach which is both ambitious and realistic".

Whether the SDLP will be prepared to blend principle and practicality to such an extent as reluctantly to endorse the Bill and nominate members to the Policing Board will depend on the Bill's implementation plan, expected to be published early next month.

Assembly member Alex Attwood, who was elected party chairman at the weekend, demanded clarification on several issues. Would the full-time RUC Reserve be disbanded and would the old RUC Special Branch be truly subsumed into the broader force or continue to remain an autonomous "force within a force?"

Peter Mandelson, in his implementation plan, is in a position to provide clarification and certain assurances. If he does, the SDLP might yet endorse the Bill. If that happens, then further divisions will almost certainly open between the SDLP and Sinn Fein, which republicans will seek to exploit electorally.

It's a big call for the SDLP. In Newcastle, members were conscious of the threat from Sinn Fein, but John Hume argued that the electorate would continue to recognise that the SDLP was the architect of the current dispensation and would not desert the party.

In a sense the SDLP has two leaders - John Hume and Seamus Mallon. The former is the figurehead for the party, who shaped its peaceful, consensus politics; the latter is the politician who is driving the SDLP strategy in the Executive and the Assembly.

Unlike Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, theirs is not an easy relationship. The longstanding tensions between them are well known, yet they generally manage to get the work done, somewhat in the fashion that Mr Mallon and David Trimble rise above their differences.

The future leadership did not arise publicly at the weekend, but away from the conference hall there was some discussion on it. One senior delegate, when asked if it was now a question of the SDLP having two chiefs, joked "I wish we had one."

The weekend represented Mr Hume's 21st SDLP conference as party leader. In his speech he adverted to how long he and the likes of Seamus Mallon, Eddie McGrady and others had been at the helm. "Yes, 30 years is a long time in politics," he said. Was this a coded message of his future wishes?

"Many of our younger members, who are today making such a vibrant and creative contribution, had not even been born in 1970. Those of us who were around then know that we are moving into the veteran category - though perhaps there's some life in us yet," added Mr Hume.

Mr Hume is shortly to resign from the Assembly, and there is doubt over whether he will contest his Westminster seat in the general election, which could come next spring or early summer. Next May should also bring important local elections, if Mr Mandelson does not postpone them as a gesture towards Mr Trimble.

It appears certain Mr Hume will lead the charge in the elections but thereafter will he move aside? And if he does, will Seamus Mallon replace him, or will the baton pass to a younger blood like finance minister Mark Durkan? Mr Hume probably would favour his protege, Mr Durkan, but if Mr Mallon desires the SDLP leadership to sit along his Deputy First Ministership, then he'll fight for it with all his considerable resolve. It was the issue that didn't speak its name publicly at the weekend, but it was there, niggling away.