To satisfy demand for housing in Dublin over the next five years, between 8,000 and 9,000 homes will have to be built annually, according to the Bacon Report. The report says such figures have implications for how long the supply of housing land might last.
It says the ESRI estimated recently that, taking into account demographic forecasts and the need for some replacement housing, there was likely to be a need for about 32,000 new dwellings within the State each year until 2000, falling to about 28,000 a year in the first half of the next decade.
"On the basis that the Dublin region maintains its 29 per cent share of the national population, about 9,300 dwellings would be needed annually until the year 2000 and 8,100 dwellings for each of the following five years."
The report quotes a study by DKM economic consultants which estimated that housing demand in the Dublin region between 1996 and 2001 would be about 7,100 units per annum. However, a further 1,950 dwellings would be needed each year in the adjoining parts of Meath, Kildare and Wicklow which formed part of the greater Dublin area.
The Bacon report concludes: "The `ballpark' estimate for annual housing demand in the Dublin region would therefore appear to be within the 8,000 to 9,000 range."
It says 6,865 new homes were built in Dublin in 1992 and this figure rose during the mid-1990s. It reached 7,063 in 1993, 7,891 in 1994, 8,823 in 1995 and 9,446 in 1996. The annual average, the report notes, was thus just over 8,000. The number of completions for the first three-quarters of 1997 was 6,223 - on a pro-rata basis, the total for the whole of 1997 would work out at about 8,300, according to the report.
The master plan of the Dublin Docklands Development Authority envisages an additional 25,000 residents over a 15-year period. The number of residential units required will range between 8,000 and 11,000 depending on average household size.
The report makes an assessment of the housing potential of serviced and unserviced land in Dublin. It says there is the potential for 38,907 units on serviced and zoned land and 40,407 units on unserviced land, either zoned or about to be rezoned.
"If it is assumed that the average housing demand in Dublin is about 8,500 units, then the supply within serviced lands would last for about 4.6 years and the supply on unserviced lands for a further 4.8 years," the report states.
However, it says the supply may be more restricted than the figures indicate because the choice of locations may be limited in certain areas and some infill lands may not come on the market at all.
An examination of future housing potential on a local authority basis shows that while zoned and serviced land in Dublin Corporation has the greatest potential, there is far less housing potential on its unserviced lands. It says Fingal and South Dublin County Councils will play an increasing role in meeting demand for housing, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown's role in satisfying demand will largely remain the same.