TURKEY: The three leaders of Turkey's coalition government have demanded early elections on November 3rd, in a move aimed at bringing a modicum of stability to country's increasingly chaotic political scene. The decision was the fruit of a rare moment of unity. Since May, Turkey has been brought to a standstill by their incessant squabbling over the EU accession process.
The decision also represents an about-turn on the part of the prime minister, Mr Bulent Ecevit. Earlier this week, he said he would step down if his government lost its 276-seat majority in parliament.
It has, but Mr Ecevit now seems to have espoused the position of his hardline coalition partner, Mr Devlet Bahceli, who declared on Monday that it was up to the opposition to unite if it wanted to oust the government.
Mr Bahceli has also changed his position. His opposition to calls from Brussels for laws abolishing the death penalty and increasing the cultural rights of Turkey's large Kurdish minority had played a large part in recent government paralysis. Yesterday, though, he said he would not oppose government collaboration with the opposition to legislate EU reforms.
His change of heart is seen by many here as a ploy aimed at dissuading the liberal deputy prime minister, Mr Mesut Yilmaz, from resigning. Mr Yilmaz's pro-European Motherland Party is closer in political terms to the group of rebel deputies that has formed itself around the former foreign minister, Mr Ismail Cem, than to the increasingly nationalist rump coalition. Mr Bahceli also hopes public hostility to any EU reforms will play into his party's hands at election time.
Nothing can be sure in Turkey's notoriously unstable political culture, but it seems for the moment that the present government may well last until November. Though his new party continues to be swelled by deputies resigning from the coalition, Mr Cem has publicly stated he will not attempt to bring the government down.
He has begun electioneering in conservative Anatolia, attempting to drum up popular support for a party that has neither infrastructure nor electoral base. Other opposition leaders have joined him in approving the proposed new election date.
Still suffering from a crisis which knocked 9.6 per cent off its gross national product in 2001, Turkey's financial sector has reacted enthusiastically to events.
In an atmosphere described as "rip-roaring" by Mr Korkan Berzeg, chief economist at Alfa Securities in Istanbul, markets rose a massive 6.7 per cent in yesterday morning's trading. Mr Berzeg attributed the increase to growing international confidence in Turkey's immediate future. Markets have also been calmed by the decision of the economy minister, Mr Kemal Dervis, to return to his post.
He resigned last Friday but was ordered back by the Turkish president, allegedly under pressure from the US administration. His continued presence in government should prevent coalition partners from squandering money in attempts to win electoral support.
The fear among foreign observers here, however, is that early elections could have a negative effect on Turkey's foreign policy obligations.
Above all, Turkey is slated to play an important role in any US-led campaign against neighbouring Iraq. During a fact-finding mission to Turkey, the US deputy defence secretary, Mr Paul Wolfowitz, reportedly told guests at a private dinner that Turkish logistical and military aid would cut the cost and difficulty of a US attack by 50 per cent.
Mr Ecevit retorted that military action would "lead to chaos in the region and cost Turkey very dearly in economic terms".
Since the plan for an attack on Saddam Hussein was first mooted last autumn, the Turkish public has been unflinchingly hostile. The government claims Turkey has lost over $30 billion in export revenue as a result of sanctions in force in Iraq for the last decade, and many fear a second US attack would destroy the country's crisis-stricken economy. The removal of Saddam could also lead to the creation of an independent Kurdish state with knock- on effects on Turkey's own Kurdish minority.
According to Cengiz Candar, columnist for the independent daily Yeni Safak, early elections would merely bring traditional hostility to American plans to the forefront of public debate. "Any country set on elections has to take into account public sentiment," he says, "and any Turkish government showing the slightest enthusiasm for American plans would be perceived by the electorate as flying in the face of the country's interests."