Tories believe the eyes attacks have it

THE graffiti scrawl has long since been obliterated

THE graffiti scrawl has long since been obliterated. But it seemed elegant and eloquent at the time: "Elect whoever you like - the government always gets in." And if the polls and pundits are right, the message might have particular application come the British general election.

Despite the best efforts of Conservative Central Office - its finances miraculously restored to the black - New Labour's "time for a change" pitch appears to find a resonance across the country. Enter here, of course, all the usual caveats.

Old Labour - in the shape of Clare Short, Peter Shore, Austin Mitchell and others - did their best to disturb Mr Tony Blair's Tuscan holiday. Party managers, look nervously to the Blackpool conference, fearing Ms Short might provide a rallying point for critics. Despite denials, the deputy leader, John Prescott, looks constantly set to go nuclear.

Whatever the advertising authorities may decree, Tory strategists think they scored with the "demon eyes" campaign. Private polling, one confides, tells them Mr Blair has a "trust" problem. "The eyes are still out there," he declares.

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And with "Stormin Norma" Major revealed as the Prime Minister's secret weapon, one fancies it can't be long before Cherie Booth's eyes also become a campaign issue.

So the fat lady is by no means singing yet. That said - with just eight months at most to go - the erosion of Labour's actual lead is on nothing like the necessary scale. No party in power has come from so far back, in so short a time, to win another term.

Barring catastrophe for Mr Blair, the expectation of many Tories is that the country will decide that close on 18 years of continuous Conservative government enough - and that they will opt for "change" by installing another Conservative prime minister.

Mr Blair has returned from holiday in "macho" mood - clearly not remotely tempted to heed Clare Short's warnings. Leaders come in one of two moulds, he declares - those who scramble around for a consensus on everything (as Mr Major, denied a comfortable forking majority, has been forced to do) and those who make decisions and lead from the front.

And just in case they'd forgotten, he reminds his party that he sees himself very much in the Thatcher mode.

The Tories hate this - but not half as much as old Labourites. Freshly restored from the American conventions, senior Tories draw the obvious comparisons with President Clinton. Their San Diego experience has apparently done nothing to check the belief that Mr Clinton is a shoo in.

The Tories hate that too - and it must be deeply galling for them that Mr Major stands this week the President's sole ally in his onslaught against Iraq.

The Conservatives are clear about the Clinton strategy: his constant repositioning, the gradual move to the right, his abandonment of the traditional liberal Democrat base, the embrace of Dole proposals - polished, fudged, finessed and repackaged as his own.

"Clinton is a predator," says the Tory strategist, offering the same judgment of Tony Blair.

And the implication is that what works for Mr Clinton in America is working here for Mr Blair.

"Whether the British people need to live through a change of government to discover the truth, I just don't know", he sighs, his private assessment plainly a good deal less confident than the public insistence that a fifth term beckons.

Listening to this, I wonder if Dr Brian Mawhinney wasn't mistaken to concede that Mr Blair had changed his party when he launched the "New Labour, New Danger" campaign. "Phoney Blair" would seem a more accurate reflection of the Tory analysis.

However, the polls and focus groups clearly told them they couldn't hope to brand Mr Blair an old style socialist wrapped in the glitzy packaging of "modern social democracy". And on the old Labour left there are certainly no such suspicions.

Most of the party's class warriors have taken a self denying vow of silence. But they readily concur with Mr Austin Mitchell's assertion that Mr Blair's instincts are not theirs. And they watch the trajectory which may or may not take Mr Blair to Downing Street with deep unease.

Even in private they will never say so - but one suspects a number of Labour MPs would be more than happy to see Mr Blair fall at the final hurdle. If he wins, they pray he wins narrowly. For if he wins big, some fear prime minister Blair would preside over a dramatic realignment of British politics.

"Give him two years and he'll have Paddy Ashdown in the cabinet," predicts one MP: "For that matter, we might as well keep Ken Clarke on as Chancellor. After all, Gordon Brown's made it clear he's not going to change his tax and spending policies." I laugh at the notion. But the MP tells he is deadly serious.

The darkest fear is that a project for electoral finally consign British to the history books. Mr Blair admits some in his party have the pace of change But this MP, for one, Labour's real trauma is still come.

The Tories may hope the lefties stay quiet. For if country gets hold of that even "Stormin Norma" can to save them.