The word most frequently used by observers about the decision to reroute the Tour of the North Orange parade in Belfast is "inevitable".
The reasons for its inevitability are manifold. The population of the area barred to the marchers has changed dramatically over the last two decades. A local nationalist confided he would have been watchful walking in that part of north Belfast in his youth.
All is changed: as the Parades Commission points out, while the entire route of the proposed march would have previously been considered predominantly Protestant, or at least mixed, "most of the contested section would now be deemed nationalist".
Another reason for the inevitability of the decision was probably the assessment that greater disorder would result from permitting the parade to proceed as planned than from rerouting it.
Two years ago, up to 1,500 RUC officers were required to ensure the march went through. Police in riot gear dragged some 350 nationalist protesters off the Cliftonville Road. Disturbances broke out after the route was cleared, with petrol bombs and missiles being thrown and a van set alight. This time there was the added ingredient of an imminent election at a very sensitive time in Northern Ireland's history. The commission explicitly took the election campaign into account. The long-term damage to community relations caused by the last parade also weighed heavily with the commission. During the fraught summer of 1996, more than 100 families in north Belfast were forced to leave their houses, and there was extensive damage to property and to community relations.
The Tour of the North does not compare with the Drumcree Orange parade in terms of tradition. The Commission said it had difficulty finding documented material on the march's history although it appeared the event had taken place "in some shape or form" for at least 50 years. The parade only followed a contentious route in even-numbered years.
As always, the question of territory is crucial. The underlying pattern with disputed marches is one of nationalists populating and becoming a majority in an area that used to be predominantly loyalist or at least mixed. The new nationalist residents don't want to be bothered by marches they find offensive, whereas Orange marchers feel staying away will be seen as an admission of territory lost for ever.
The commission admits it heard "no evidence of bad behaviour on the part of the Orangemen or other participants" in the 1996 parade. The problems arose from the reaction to the parade passing through contentious areas and the further disorder which that reaction generated.
Comments that were perceived as damaging came from both sides in the run-up to this year's parade. A former representative of the nationalist residents, Mr Paul Little, told BBC's Spotlight programme that "people are prepared to take whatever action is necessary".
One of the parade organisers, Mr Stephen McAllister, told the same programme: "I can't really see any reason why we should parade round in circles within, you know, a 100 per cent Protestant area. There would be no reason for the parades."
Orange spokesmen have deplored the commission's decision on the grounds that it was giving into violence and "Sinn Fein storm-troopers". The parade organisers will give their formal reaction at a press conference this morning. There is speculation there may be a protest at police lines; for their part, nationalists have not yet called off their own planned protest.