SUPPORT FOR the Lisbon Treaty has continued to harden over the past three months with a marginal increase in the numbers intending to vote Yes in the referendum later in the year and a more significant shift from the No camp into the Don't Know category, according to T he Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
One of the trends in the poll has been a softening of the attitude of women towards the treaty.
A segment of women voters has shifted from the No camp into the Don’t Know category since the last poll, giving the Yes side a clear lead.
Support for the treaty has increased again among middle-class voters, particularly those in the better off categories, and there is even a small majority in favour among the least well-off DE social category voters.
The economic crisis has clearly encouraged the shift in public opinion over the past year and as long as all the political parties in favour of a Yes vote work to mobilise their supporters in a referendum campaign the treaty should be carried.
The failure of Declan Ganley and Libertas to make a significant breakthrough in the European election campaign will boost morale among Yes supporters and give them grounds for hope that last year’s referendum result can be reversed.
On the other hand support for the other main anti-Lisbon party, Sinn Féin, has remained solid in the poll with the party’s MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, in with a strong chance of retaining her European Parliament seat.
That will not be a serious worry to the Yes campaign as Sinn Féin has opposed every treaty since the first referendum on entry in 1972 and the party has always attracted the minority who are opposed to the European project.
The major issue that the Yes side now needs to work out is how its campaign should be structured if the Government suffers the kind of setback in the European and local elections that the poll is pointing to.
A Yes campaign led by a deeply unpopular Government could come off the rails if people want to vent their anger at the trend of economic policy.
A successful Yes campaign will have to involve the main Opposition parties Fine Gael and Labour at its core from the beginning, to have a real chance of success.
It will be a challenge for the leaders of all the pro EU parties in the Dáil to put their other political differences aside and campaign together hard and enthusiastically in order to deliver a Yes majority as an important step in restoring the country’s dented international reputation.
The poll question is based on the assumption that a second referendum will be held in the autumn after agreement at the EU summit next month to clarify the treaty to allow all countries to retain an EU commissioner, and that legal guarantees on specific Irish concerns such as neutrality, taxation and abortion will be agreed.
The key element of the poll is that it shows support for the treaty holding very solid since February while opposition to it has softened. Among the most well-off AB social category support for the treaty is now running at 67 per cent, while opposition to it has dropped to 17 per cent.
In regional terms, the Yes lead is now biggest in Dublin, where 58 per cent support the treaty and 27 per cent are on the No side.
In Connacht/Ulster the Yes lead is 52 per cent to 29 per cent, while in the rest of Leinster it is 51 per cent to 31 per cent.
Munster is the least enthusiastic region with 47 per cent to 28 per cent.
Asked if, in the current crisis, it is better for Ireland to be part of the EU, an overwhelming majority of 79 per cent to 10 per cent say Yes, with a very small number of undecided voters at 11 per cent.
There is a substantial majority in favour of the EU among all social classes, age groups and party supporters.
Not surprisingly, Sinn Féin supporters are easily the most negative about the EU, although a decisive majority are still in favour.
What is surprising is that the most enthusiastic supporters of the EU are Green Party supporters, followed by Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour in that order.
In class terms, the best-off AB group is the most supportive; the poorest DE group the most negative.
In age terms, older voters over 50 are the most positive, while those in the 18-24 age group are the most negative.
However, there is still strong support for the EU across all age categories.