ANALYSIS:Carefully planned Gaza attacks may erase memories of past mistakes, writes Mark Weissin Jerusalem
IN LESS than two months' time, after elections in early February, Ehud Olmert will step down as Israeli prime minister.
Over the last few months he pushed hard to clinch a peace agreement with both the Palestinians and the Syrians, but he failed on both tracks.
It looked increasingly likely that the Olmert legacy would be a failed war against the Lebanese Shia Hizbullah in the summer of 2006, and a whole series of corruption allegations that eventually forced him from office.
But, just before noon on Saturday, when the first Israeli jets began to pound Hamas targets in Gaza, Olmert was given one last chance to change his image as a failure in the eyes of the Israeli public.
The timing of the devastating Israeli air strikes may have taken Hamas fighters by surprise, but the attack itself was hardly unexpected.
For weeks Israeli leaders had been threatening to hit back hard if Palestinian militants continued firing rockets into southern Israel.
On Christmas Eve, when more than 70 rockets and mortars landed in Israel, the die was cast.
The launch of the operation had to wait until foreign minister Tzipi Livni returned from a Christmas Day visit to Egypt.
With clear skies a key factor, military planners were forced to wait until Saturday, when a spell of wintry weather passed.
A large humanitarian convoy was allowed into Gaza on Friday to create the impression of business as usual.
False information was also leaked to the Israeli media that Olmert would hold additional security consultations on Sunday.
The ruse worked so well that Hamas permitted a graduation ceremony for police officers to go ahead in Gaza city on Saturday morning. The compound where the ceremony was taking place was one of the first targets in the initial air sortie.
The meticulous planning contrasted sharply with the handling of the one-month summer campaign against Hizbullah 2½ years ago.
Another difference is Israel's willingness, this time, to use the full might of its armed forces.
Israeli leaders are reporting accurate hits on Hamas installations and infrastructure targets, but civilian casualties are inevitable in the crowded Gaza Strip where Hamas headquarters and bases are in close proximity to residential areas.
Olmert stated, during the conflict with Hizbullah, that one of the war aims was the return of the two Israeli soldiers seized in a cross-border raid, but the fighting ended with the two soldiers still in Hizbullah captivity.
This time the war aims are being kept deliberately vague.
There is no mention of freeing Cpl Gilad Shalit, who was seized on the border by militants 2½ years ago, and remains in captivity in Gaza. There is no mention of bringing an end to Hamas rule in Gaza, and even no declarations that Israel seeks a total cessation of the rocket fire.
Instead, Israeli leaders are talking in general terms about "creating a new reality" and "changing the rules of the game".
It is likely that at some stage ground troops will be ordered into Gaza, although Israel has no intention of reoccupying the entire coastal strip.
But Israel still lacks a clear exit strategy.
So far the Hamas leaders show no signs of capitulation or accepting a new ceasefire on Israel's terms. A total defeat of Hamas is not a realistic option. But if the current conflict ends with a prolonged period of quiet for communities in southern Israel, Olmert will have gone a long way towards creating a positive legacy and replacing the memories of the failed campaign against Hizbullah.