Growth of the euro-zone money supply stabilised in July, data showed this morning, taking the heat off the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates at a time when economic prospects for the region are looking more uncertain than ever.
The ECB calculated that the euro zone's money supply, as measured by the broad indicator M3, grew by 7.1 per cent on a 12-month basis in July, the same rate of change as in the previous month.
M3 growth had already slowed sharply in June.
The ECB closely monitors developments in the money supply when deciding the appropriate level of interest rates because it sees a link between the level of liquidity in the economy and future inflation.
M3 covers cash, overnight deposits, other short-term deposits, repurchase agreements, shares and units in money market funds and debt securities with a maturity of up to two years.
Because the monthly figures are subject to volatility, the ECB also calculates a three-month moving average for M3 growth, which stood at 7.3 per cent in the period from May to July, marginally slower than the 7.4 per cent recorded in April to June.
The ECB estimates that the money supply should grow by an annual average 4.5 per cent so as not to jeopardise price stability, but both the monthly figure and the three-month moving average have consistently exceeded that level for years now.
In its August monthly report, the ECB even voiced its concern about "substantial excess liquidity" in the economy.
Nevertheless, analysts suggested that uncertainty about the generally weak state of the economy and slowing headline inflation would persuade the ECB not to raise interest rates too precipitously.
Indeed, a closer look at the development of the different components of M3 appeared to suggest there was currently no cause for alarm just yet.
While the annual rate of M1 growth for example, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, picked up, the annual rate of growth of short-term deposits slowed.
And growth in credit to the private sector slowed sharply, an indication that companies and individuals are becoming less confident about taking out loans in view of the renewed uncertainty in the global economic outlook.
AFP