Northern Ireland could lose one of its 18 Westminster constituencies under a new review being carried out by the North's Boundary Commission. South Belfast, held by Ulster Unionist, the Rev Martin Smyth, is one of the seats most likely to go, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.
The last boundary changes were in 1995 when the number of House of Commons seats was increased from 17 to 18, with the creation of a new constituency, West Tyrone won by Sinn Féin's Mr Pat Doherty.
The original commission proposals of 1994 were for 17 redrawn constituencies that would have seen the abolition of South Down, won after many failed battles by the SDLP's Mr Eddie McGrady.
Such was the opposition to the proposals that the commission altered its position and created an extra seat, thus providing a reprieve for Mr McGrady.
This review could see Northern Ireland again returning 17 MPs to Westminster. Under the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 the number of constituencies "shall be 17 unless it appears to the commission that Northern Ireland should for the time being be divided into 16 or 18 constituencies".
If the proposals, due late this year or early next year, are for 17 seats then one of Belfast's four seats could disappear. While South Belfast would seem most likely to be abolished, Belfast equally could be carved up in some other fashion. For instance the second lowest electoral population is in Sinn Féin president Mr Gerry Adams's West Belfast constituency with 50,870 voters, the third lowest is in North Belfast (51,422 voters) held by the DUP's Mr Nigel Dodds, and the fourth lowest is in East Belfast (51,899 voters) held by the DUP's Mr Peter Robinson.
But South Belfast appears most at risk. Its electorate of 50,599 is the lowest in Northern Ireland. This is 17 per cent under the electoral quota for Northern Ireland of 60,969. That quota is found by dividing the total electorate of 1,097,450 by 18, the number of constituencies.
In the original but later abandoned 1994 proposals, South Belfast would have been subsumed into West Belfast and East Belfast, making Belfast a three-seat instead of a four-seat city. According to one source that proposal could be reinstated.
There is also an outside possibility that the number of constituencies could be reduced to 16. Using the same quota formula that would allow for an electoral quota for the North of 68,591.
That compares with the quota for England and Scotland, which is actually higher at 69,934.
The DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley's North Antrim constituency is the biggest in the North, with 70,582 voters; Mr McGrady's South Down seat is the second largest with an electorate of 70,173; and third largest is the Upper Bann constituency of Ulster Unionist leader Mr David Trimble's Upper Bann with 68,806 voters.