Sharp drop in exports pushes growth down

Ireland's gross domestic product grew by 0

Ireland's gross domestic product grew by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of the year compared with the same quarter in 2001, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said today.

New national accounts figures published today show a slight 0.8 per cent rise in gross national product (GNP) during the quarter, compared to the same period in 2002.

Growth of 0.8 per cent in GNP suggests marginal economic growth and marks a recovery from a -0.4 per cent decline in the third quarter of 2002.

The GNP decline in July-September last year indicated the weakest period for the economy in over a decade. The last recorded fall in GNP was for 1986.

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GDP measures overall economic activity before net factor income flows into and out of the economy is taken into account. The repatriation of earnings by multinationals is the dominant factor in these flows.

Many economists consider GNP a more accurate annual measure of Irish growth, because GDP figures are distorted by the high number of US multinationals with Irish bases.

Net exports decreased from €4.45 billion in the first quarter of 2002 to €4.06 in the same period this year.

The CSO cautions against placing too much reliance on data for one quarter. However, the GDP of 0.5 per cent is considerably below the 7.5 per cent rise in the last quarter of 2002.

Consumer spending grew by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter while capital investment saw a 12.4 per cent decline respectively, compared with the same period in 2002. The main factor behind the slowdown was weaker growth in industrial production.

"Exports are weakening on foot of the global downturn," said Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist at IIB Bank. "But this has been partly offset by the resilience of domestic demand," he added.

The volume of industry output rose by 1 per cent in the quarter.

David Labanyi

David Labanyi

David Labanyi is the Head of Audience with The Irish Times