Sinn Féin is brazening out the Northern Bank robbery, but it must know that if it really wants power-sharing it will have to deliver more comprehensively than ever before, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Sinn Féin, when under the lash, as it so assuredly is now after the IRA was fingered by Hugh Orde for the £26.5 million Northern Bank raid, generally responds in two ways: as victim and as brazen pup.
Most often, the victimhood card is emphasised, but while we have heard plenty of the usual hackneyed phrases about so-called securocrats conspiring against republicans, this time there is a greater focus on playing the defensive line brashly and boldly.
For instance, on RTÉ Radio at lunchtime yesterday, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, was telling interviewer Gerald Barry as clearly as he possibly could that he believed the Sinn Féin leadership of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness knew about the planned IRA robbery during the recent political negotiations.
"This was a Provisional IRA job. This was a job that would have been known to the leadership, this is a job that would have been known to the political leadership. That is my understanding," Mr Ahern said.
To avoid any doubt, Barry asked further: "And known to the political leadership of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness and Gerry Kelly and all the others with whom you negotiated?"
"Certainly in the leadership," the Taoiseach replied.
Now that is a heavy-duty allegation. It says that right in the middle of intensive and protracted negotiations aimed at restoring devolution - in which the Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs had invested great faith in Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness - the two Sinn Féin leaders were acting in absolute bad faith with them.
Serious stuff, but did it discommode Sinn Féin's policing spokesman, Mr Gerry Kelly, who, in a BBC Radio Ulster lunchtime debate, was alerted to Mr Ahern's claim? Not a bit of it.
"What Bertie Ahern is doing is electioneering," said a very relaxed Mr Kelly. "He has done an awful lot for this peace process . . . but that does not mean I am going to sit here and take comments which are attacking Sinn Féin which are absolutely and totally false. I will not do it."
So Sinn Féin's strategy for the moment is clear. It stands behind a protective wall stating that the chief constable has no evidence to back his allegation; that in any case "securocrats" are up to their usual games; that unionists can huff and puff all they like but, without Sinn Féin, devolution is simply not going to happen.
On the latter point, Sinn Féin is right. Politicians such as the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Peter Robinson have urged the SDLP to stand aside from Sinn Féin and join them in an executive from which republicans are excluded.
Many politicians and commentators argue reasonably that there is a huge moral issue here which transcends politics: that the more you attempt to square the circle between republican politics and paramilitarism, the more society is corrupted, and that now is the time to marginalise Sinn Féin, because "Sinn Féin has marginalised itself".
The SDLP leader, Mr Mark Durkan, is conscious of that dilemma and did not hesitate in accepting Mr Orde's attribution of blame and in attacking republicans. But he is not prepared to move ahead without Sinn Féin because he knows that that is the road to political suicide for the SDLP. That's realpolitik.
A Sinn Féin spokesman was graphic when also insisting that there could be no devolution without his party. "Anyone who thinks you can have a political process without Sinn Féin has their head - let me put this politely - where it shouldn't be."
So we are now facing into a fairly sterile political period. A bout of recrimination will have to be gone through. That could take us into the autumn and maybe beyond. Of course, a little sackcloth and ashes from republicans - together with assurances that, with a deal, all IRA activity, including criminality, will end - might more quickly open up renewed possibilities.
Despite the bitter blame game, the two governments will have no option but to return eventually to drawing Sinn Féin and the DUP into a power-sharing administration. Sinn Féin was in contact with Downing Street and Government Buildings over the weekend. Thus, notwithstanding the harsh words, lines of communication remain open.
"They need us and we need them," said a senior republican source. Which is all very true. But what is also true is that, if there is ever to be a deal, republicans must provide more than what was on offer to Dr Ian Paisley in December and more than what was on offer to David Trimble in October 2003.
The irony is that every time the IRA allegedly engages in some brazen act, whether robbing the Northern Bank or in Stormontgate, republicans must deliver more comprehensively to end direct rule and allow Sinn Féin into government in the North.
There must be a lesson there for Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness.