Whisper it: some in Fianna Fáil have begun to imagine a life without Bertie at the helm, writes Mark Hennessy
For years, the picture of Bertie Ahern on the Fianna Fáil election poster has been a bonus to Fianna Fáil candidates as they hunted for votes, irrespective of the controversy of the day.
Judging by the numbers of the public who queued for a copy of the Flood tribunal's findings yesterday, there are signs, faint perhaps, that the gloss is beginning to fade from Mr Ahern's leadership.
Regardless of the public mood, however, Mr Ahern will, no doubt, be more worried by the stirrings inside the parliamentary party.
"A lot of them have not got the time of day for him," commented one TD yesterday.
The reasons are numerous. Some will talk about his perceived inability to take hard decisions, his appointment of Ray Burke to the Cabinet in 1997, and the lack of communication about Cabinet decisions. All of these complaints have some foundation.
However, there is another, more deeply personal, motivation. The real sense of grievance is about jobs or the lack of them.
Following the formation of the current ministerial team, many TDs were finally forced to concede to themselves that they will never be promoted "during the Ahern era", to quote one.
"It rankles with them. Every politician is ambitious. Some of them may not even be prepared to admit it to themselves as yet," said one party insider who has noted carefully TDs' mood-swings.
The Taoiseach's handling of the last round of appointments has particularly infuriated TDs.
"Look, he did not have the balls to tell people that they were being fired, for God's sake," said a TD.
In parliamentary party lore, Mr Ahern scrapped plans to tell the losers individually after Dublin South East TD, Mr Eoin Ryan, railed when he found out that he was going to be sacked.
Stunned by Mr Ryan's outburst, Mr Ahern is then supposed to have dropped plans to tell the others. Instead, they were left to find out about it from the radio on their way to Leinster House.
In particular, the wound left by Mr Ahern's decision to demote Síle de Valera, Jim McDaid and Frank Fahey from the Cabinet to become Ministers of State has festered badly over the summer.
"Backbenchers cannot understand it: that he would find a place for them on the way out of Cabinet. It ruins their own hope of ever rising in the ranks," said one source yesterday.
However, one senior TD was blunt: "He shouldn't think that de Valera, Fahey and McDaid will be thankful for the jobs. They would gut him if they got the chance. Don't have any doubt about it."
So, everything now is being interpreted negatively by some in the party ranks.
Why did he appoint Burke? Why was Mara allowed to walk, and not pushed? Why were such TDs getting it in the neck on the doorstep from voters, they wondered.
But though they grumble, the days of rebellion have not yet arrived.
For a start, there is no credible alternative to Mr Ahern. Unusually, too, he does not yet have to protect his flank from public challenge by lieutenants.
Left to their own devices, Fianna Fáil TDs, senators and MEPs would choose Brian Cowen to take over, once Mr Ahern had stepped aside.
Mr Cowen's rough style, laced with brilliant humour, strikes a chord deep inside them.
On reflection, however, most accept that Mr Cowen's face on the poster would not help.
"Cowen doesn't strike it with the public, particularly women. These guys will realise that, whether they want to or not," said one.
The meeting of the parliamentary party in Killarney last week helped to soothe tempers left irritated by the problems of the summer, when TDs were ignored as the new administration settled in and then went on holidays.
Though the predictions of rebellion were overplayed by some in the media before the meeting, some Fianna Fáil TDs believe that the outcome of the meeting was equally overplayed in Mr Ahern's favour.
"Look, the same old problems exist. And they are not going to go away," said one TD, who has been around long enough to witness the undermining of a number of leaders.
"This is so like the last days of Charlie. There are guys who believe that they have nothing to lose under Ahern. They are beginning to feel that everything would change under somebody else."
But they haven't done anything about it. And they won't for a good while yet.
Lots of other things must go wrong.
For instance, there will be rumblings if the next opinion poll shows that Bertie has dropped significantly in the ratings.
"The trouble for Bertie is that if he starts to slide, he could go into freefall. But the party will wait to see what happens before there will be really serious rumblings," he told The Irish Times.
Unlike Charles J. Haughey and Albert Reynolds, Bertie Ahern does not have a core of loyalists about him.
His predecessors' praetorian guard eventually disappeared like snow off a ditch.
Nevertheless, the loyalists managed to repel initial attacks. Bertie Ahern has no such outer defensive rim, other than the power of patronage, and the power to take it away.
Interestingly, the new crop of Fianna Fáil TDs have already begun to organise themselves as a quasi-separate group rather than settle for accepting the diktat of more senior colleagues.
Earlier this week, a 20-strong group met the Government Chief Whip, Ms Mary Hanafin, and the chairman of the parliamentary party, Mr Seamus Kirk, to air their views.
The meeting's significance lies not so much in its agenda. Rather, it lies in the fact that 20 TDs were exercised enough to gather in the middle of a non-sitting week in Leinster House.
"And National Ploughing Championship week, too!" said one TD.
However, the political tremors will likely be soothed for a time by a Nice Treaty victory.
Even TDs who care little about the issue itself, and less about Bertie Ahern, want to be part of a winning team.