In my more pessimistic moments, I can paint as gloomy a scenario as anyone of what might happen next. And it is undeniable that the suspension of the political institutions established on foot of the Good Friday agreement is a major disappointment. But to talk about the peace process being at risk makes the situation unnecessarily difficult.
There is too much riding on the success of the project to allow any of us room for self-indulgent defeatism. I say "us" advisedly, because getting the ship off the rocks is as much the responsibility of civil society as of the politicians.
Civil society has every incentive to take up the challenge, because they are the real losers this week - the great mass of people throughout Northern Ireland who, regardless of their political affiliation, expect the political process to deliver a normal democratic society which is not constantly living on the edge.
I believe civil society would wish to take more ongoing responsibility for the future. The voices of those who - in their capacity as employers, workers, members of the dense network of voluntary and community groups at the grass roots etc, - have kept the wheels turning, have no ready means of expression. The Civic Forum - one of the most imaginative components of the agreement - would have remedied that serious deficiency.
The decommissioning envisaged under the agreement has not happened. But neither has the setting-up of the Civic Forum. It is therefore regrettable that the suspension legislation passed by Parliament this week, which empowers the Secretary of State to discharge any functions of the First and Deputy First Ministers, explicitly rules out the creation of the Civic Forum while the Assembly remains suspended.
The kind of transformational change which constitutes the Northern Ireland agenda will not be accomplished by conventional political means alone. Nor is it fair that politicians should be expected to shoulder the entire burden of what (in business terms) would be perceived as profoundly difficult cultural change. Hence the strong support which the Group of 7 has consistently given (and not least this week) to the efforts of the politicians to have the agreement implemented in its entirety.
As chairman of the group, I am struck by the extent to which those it represents (and they are typical of a mass of others) have espoused the vision of an open, inclusive, democratic society founded on principles of tolerance and fairness, in which prejudice and bigotry have no place, and where not only is opportunity abundant, but people are given the means to access it. Reflecting that vision, the group and its constituent bodies have engaged freely from the beginning with all political parties, including Sinn Fein, the PUP and the UDP.
We have recognised that nobody finds the process of change easy. Making the logical case for change is one thing. Being able to absorb the emotional charge often associated with an unprecedented process of cumulative change is quite different. It is not only those who have to decommission who are being required to turn the page and begin a new chapter. Few societies have the opportunities for the new beginnings which have opened up for all of us.
The review which the suspension legislation obliges the Secretary of State to initiate offers an opportunity to rectify a serious weakness of the Good Friday agreement, which provided the grand design but failed to provide the business plan to make it operational. Who does what? - and when? (and how will their performance be monitored and measured?) - was missing and has bedevilled implementation almost from the beginning. Perhaps the omission of this vital dimension was needed in order to get an agreement.
Clearly, however, the repair of the omission is urgently necessary in order to breathe new life into the agreement. This cannot be done unless all parties participate actively in the review.
What has so far proved elusive is the creation of the conditions for durable, inclusive political institutions. Experience demonstrates they can exist only in the context of full implementation of all aspects of the agreement.
But present failure should not obscure the remarkable fact that the main parties accept the case for such institutions and have shown over the past weeks that they can make them work. Moreover, the great majority of people in Northern Ireland - and this certainly applies to the social partners - have found these past weeks reassuring and exhilarating and want to see the suspension speedily lifted.
Members of the Executive, without exception, have proved energetic, creative and sure-footed. They have put their fingers quickly on the critical strategic and operational issues. Those who foretold that the relationship between Ministers and the civil service would be difficult have (as I expected) been proved mistaken. The North/South bodies have moved effortlessly into gear.
Nothing is perfect, but the Executive, which could have turned out to be an awkward, unworkable structure, has come up trumps as a valuable asset. It is an asset that needs to be unfrozen fast so it can produce valuable returns for Northern Ireland plc.
In the meantime, business - and society - will simply get on with the job, as they have done for 30 years. Stop-go simply does not feature with companies that care for survival.
There will of course be widespread frustration at losing local Ministers at the very time they are most needed, with agriculture in sharp decline (and no sign of bottoming out) and with our most important manufacturing sector (clothing and textiles) more sorely pressed than it has been for years. Business looked forward to vigorous action to implement Strategy 2010 alongside the Spatial Strategy (Shaping the Future) which has just completed a process of public inquiry.
There was every prospect that, at long last, we would begin to enjoy the surge of inward investment which external apprehensions about our stability have long denied us. Witness Sir Reg Empey's announcement a week ago of a major Fujitsu investment. The incline to success has become steeper following this week's developments. Northern Ireland has always been a superb location, as the performance of so many of its businesses demonstrates. That will still be true next week, but it will take us longer to get to first base with prospective investors.
The tragedy of this week in economic terms is not that things will go badly, but that it postpones yet again the time when Northern Ireland can begin to realise its formidable potential.
What above all will be important is that direct rule ministers maintain the momentum achieved by the Executive in so many areas. Too many things were on hold while the setting up of the Executive was awaited. We cannot afford to let this happen again. E-commerce is not the only area where time is of the essence. A major factor in our favour is the drive demonstrated by Mr Mandelson while Secretary of State at the Department of Trade and Industry in London.
The last 30 years have been punctuated by lost opportunities. Once more we have a chance to prise ourselves from the grip of the past and, from both traditions, forge a genuine partnership. I am convinced this is the wish of the vast majority in civil society.
Sir George Quigley is chairman of Ulster Bank. The Group of Seven statement this week urging paramilitaries to provide evidence that they were working with Gen de Chastelain was issued in the names of Sir George; Mark Ennis, chairman of the Confederation of British Industry; Nigel Smyth, director of the CBI; Rosemary Armstrong, regional chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses; Ann Shaw, chairman of the Institute of Directors; Linda Brown, director of the IOD; Eamonn Oakes, NI committee of the ICTU; Tom Gillen, deputy NI officer of the NI ICTU; Janet Trewsdale, chairman of the NI Economic Council; Dr Paul Gorecki, director of the NI Economic Council; Dt Pat Haren, chairman of the NI Growth Council; Frank Hewitt, director of the Growth Council; Neville Morrison, NI Hospitality Federation; Felix Mooney, NI Hospitality Federation; Owen Lamont, president of the NI Chamber of Commerce & Industry; and John Stringer, chief executive of the Chamber.