Britain: Local polls may hasten the prime minister's departure, writes Frank Millar, London Editor.
Is this the end for Tony Blair and his "New Labour" government? No. But might it this time really be the beginning of the end?
Might the English local elections 2006 mark Mr Blair's dreaded "Thatcher moment" - with local election rejection prompting nervous MPs to look to their own majorities, sparking stalking horse leadership challenges ending, almost inevitably, amid tears, recrimination and regret, in cabinet revolt? These obviously might be among the questions they will be addressing in 10 Downing Street this morning as the British prime minister and his aides pore over the differing and conflicting patterns of results from yesterday's mayoral, district, metropolitan and London contests.
At this writing the odds remain that the success of the "stay at home" party will be one of the big talking points (with anything above a one-third turnout almost reassuring evidence that disaffection with politics might yet prove reversible). With around 23 million people entitled to vote, obviously yesterday's elections always contained the potential for a powerful and indicative commentary on the national mood about Blair's third-term government.
Yet to recall the fact of Labour's victory with a 66-seat Commons majority just 12 months ago is to put our opening question in perspective, no matter that some headlines will treat almost any outcome as Mr Blair's notice to quit. And two crucial facts in the midst of our excitement, as Roy (Lord) Hattersley reminded Labour members the other day, are (a) that Blair has been Labour's most successful ever leader, in electoral terms at least, and (b) that the collapse of his project in seeming ruin and disgrace would hardly be a harbinger for a fourth Labour term under whichever leader comes after.
In adversity in the Commons on Wednesday, playing an incredibly weak hand over the foreign prisoner release fiasco, Blair gave a reminder of why he has been so successful, and why he can still command the admiration (albeit often grudging) of many who do not yet feel it (and suspect they never will) for Gordon Brown.
When in trouble Mr Blair also likes to brush aside "local difficulties" and call in aid "the big picture". He is of course a terrible chancer. However, that doesn't mean he isn't sometimes justified - as he was that same day in challenging the notion that Labour's recent difficulties are analogous to John Major's "Black Wednesday", when that government's entire economic strategy collapsed and the Tories lost a reputation for economic competence they never recovered.
New Tory leader David Cameron was yesterday defending his party's "high water mark" achievement in the same elections of four years ago. Before the still-threatening controversies surrounding Charles Clarke, John Prescott and Patricia Hewitt, experts had the Tories struggling against the Liberal Democrats. A wholesale collapse in Labour's vote across the country could significantly alter the seat allocation, but attention will still turn to see if the Tories are making any headway out of London, in places like Manchester. And whatever the distribution of the council spoils, an initial step-change in the national polls has seen Mr Cameron slip back to a position broadly similar to that of Iain Duncan-Smith, William Hague and Michael Howard before him.
Until Mr Cameron is consistently polling support of 40 per cent plus the Tories will not look like a government- in-waiting, while a hung parliament after the next election remains a serious prospect.
Between now and then, of course, there will also be another election - for a new Labour leader. It is the knowledge that he's going anyway which will probably stay the hand of rebels - allowing Mr Blair to set the time for his promised departure, but also probably now within a shorter timeframe than he wishes.
