Prospects of avoiding automatic plebiscite advance

MINISTER OF State for Europe Lucinda Creighton said in Brussels yesterday that early ratification by Ireland of a new fiscal treaty was essential for investor confidence and the confidence of the State’s bailout sponsors.

But, she said, “anybody who thinks that a treaty is the ultimate solution to the financial crisis or the euro crisis is clearly wide of the mark. It’s only an element of the solution and we need to get on with the other elements.”

In Government circles the debate on any requirement for a referendum is held to be finely balanced. But Dublin’s prospects of avoiding an automatic plebiscite advanced last night.

In a final round of pre-summit talks on the draft treaty between officials, there was no move to reinstate any requirement for constitutional measures to limit debt and deficits.

“The Irish concerns are met,” said a participant in the talks.

Germany had pushed for constitutional measures that would have necessitated an Irish vote, but softened its stance in recent days.

The text that will go to EU leaders calls for a new “golden rule” on debt and deficits to be enacted at a “preferably constitutional” level, leaving scope for the Government to enact the measure in secondary legislation.

“I think it’s impossible to presuppose what will ultimately come out of next Monday’s meeting,” Ms Creighton said in the hours before the conclusion of the talks between officials. “I would always be cautious in saying that what’s agreed at official level will not necessarily be agreed at political level.”

Questions remain as to whether other parts of the treaty will lead to an appreciable transfer of powers to the EU authorities. A referendum would be required in that event The Government is coy on that front, saying the treaty will be subject to review by the Attorney General.

Even if the Attorney rules that a vote is not required, a Supreme Court challenge is considered inevitable.

Ms Creighton said the Government’s objective in the talks was to seek to anchor the treaty “as closely as possible” to EU law.

“We’re satisfied enough, cautiously satisfied I would say, that the various legal mechanisms for the implementation of the debt brake – the need for different options for member states – are broadly acceptable and the text we hope as it currently stands will continue to stand over the weekend,” she said.

Negotiators are still battling over three elements of the treaty. Poland wants the right to attend all euro zone summits even though it is not in the single currency and France says no non-euro country can attend.

A compromise text would empower non-euro states to attend at least one of these summits per year.

The European Parliament wants the right to be represented at these summits but member states are resisting.

In addition, Italy is fighting German pressure to enshrine a mechanism for sanctions against countries that do not reduce their debt on target in the treaty.