Prospect of Hume topping poll fails to breathe fire into low-key campaign

Low-key is too strong a word to describe the European elections in Northern Ireland

Low-key is too strong a word to describe the European elections in Northern Ireland. Several candidates have worked extremely hard but the poll has failed to ignite the public's imagination, especially on the unionist side.

Brussels and Strasbourg seem a long way off to the average Northern Ireland voter, for whom London remains the centre of most power and influence. Voting for MEPs in the North still tends to be a sectarian head-count, and the European ideal has, sadly, failed to make the impact it should.

Most interest centres on two key parochial issues. Will John Hume top the poll over Ian Paisley for the first time? How will the UUP's Jim Nicholson fare, given the disarray in his party and in the unionist camp generally, not to mention lurid tabloid coverage of his private life?

Mr Hume has played down the importance of beating the DUP leader into second place, insisting, despite the sceptics, that the election is about European issues. But many of his supporters are in no doubt that bringing their man home first is the crucial issue. His ubiquitous, carefully designed election poster carries the slogan, "Your FIRST choice", with unmistakable emphasis on "first".

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Meanwhile, Dr Paisley is running as "the only unionist who can top the poll at this election". Having come first in all previous European elections, he now seeks to make it five in a row.

Most observers believe Mr Hume can do it this time but there is a minority view that counsels caution. The Hume First camp says the tide of history is running in the Derry man's favour. Having secured the Belfast Agreement, based on his own three-strands blueprint, he went on to share the Nobel Peace Prize with David Trimble. Some believe there is a definite logic, not to say inevitability, about Mr Hume making it a hat-trick by taking the number one spot in the European poll.

Last time out, in 1994, the SDLP leader was just over 1,200 votes behind Dr Paisley. On that occasion, however, the Sinn Fein vote was below 10 per cent. This time around, and two ceasefires later, the republicans are running one of their principal spokesmen, Mitchel McLaughlin, who has been on TV news and current affairs shows constantly in recent months. He is bound to increase Sinn Fein's share of first preferences.

There is said to be a pro-Sinn Fein mood among some of the younger nationalists, who think it is "cool" to vote for the republicans. The one serious handicap Mr McLaughlin has to contend with is public revulsion over the bodies of the disappeared. This is a bigger issue south of the Border but it is bound to make the new Sinn Fein voters in the North, known colloquially as the "Novo Provos", think twice before marking their ballot-paper. There has been a tendency for Sinn Fein to attract more SDLP second preferences in recent elections but this trend may also be affected by the nightly footage of unsuccessful "digs" at Carlingford and elsewhere.

Ian Paisley's main problem could be that other colourful unionist, Robert McCartney. The UK Unionist Party leader is the chief unknown quantity in the poll. Were he to attract more than 50,000 votes, he could do serious damage both to Dr Paisley's poll-topping ambitions and Jim Nicholson's aim to hold a seat for the UUP. But some observers feel that is pitching Mr McCartney's vote-getting potential much too high and they expect his first-preference total to be closer to 30,000.

The other dark horse is the Progressive Unionist Party's David Ervine. While the PUP's links with loyalist paramilitaries are a turn-off for middle-class unionists in particular, Mr Ervine has established himself as a political personality in his own right with a strong media profile. The PUP will be dancing in the streets if their man beats Mr McCartney.

The Alliance Party leader, Sean Neeson, faces an uphill struggle because the middle ground has become quite crowded since the agreement was passed in last year's referendum. Mr Neeson has made strenuous efforts to keep his party at the forefront of events, and his busy election campaign was marred only by a sketch in his election broadcast that was seen as offensive to gays and lesbians. If he scores more than 20,000 votes he can afford to smile.

The fate of Jim Nicholson, Glengall Street's standard-bearer, will be closely watched. If he receives fewer than 100,000 first preferences and/or less than 20 per cent of the vote, dissident unionists and others will see it as a negative judgment on the UUP under the leadership of David Trimble. Mr Nicholson scored some 133,459 votes last time and this is bound to drop, although his more optimistic supporters believe it will not fall below 110,000.

Whatever the results, each party and faction will have its own self-serving interpretation. If Mr Nicholson were to lose his seat, it could be curtains also for David Trimble, but even hostile observers believe the UUP will limp home in the end. Even if Mr Hume tops Dr Paisley, the anti-agreement camp will in all probability add the Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney totals to show the strength of unionist feeling on the Good Friday pact.

There are widespread reports of unionist apathy, particularly among the middle classes. There is a feeling that, "no matter what way we vote, the British government does what it likes". Nationalists, on the other hand, appear to have been energised by the Belfast Agreement and the prospect of sharing power. However, Europe does not excite Northern voters of either tradition. The turnout was a low 49.4 per cent in 1994, although the new political zest in nationalist quarters may bring about an improvement. The count takes place on Monday and, barring re-counts, the first-count result is expected in the late afternoon.