Will the weather ever be predictable? And if it can't be tamed, can anything be done to minimise the damage it can cause?
These are questions occupying researchers in six academic institutions in several countries. Ireland is playing a major part. The initiative is called "Project Storminess." We know from recent events that storms can have a devastating impact on local regions. That's why this project, EU-funded to the tune of £1 million, is seeking to bring new strengths to the business of weather prediction. It is high-technology led.
Dr Robert Devoy, who is the statutory lecturer in UCC's department of geography, is also a director of the Coastal Resources Centre at the college and is leading UCC's input into the project which also involves Queens and Coleraine acting as a team, as well as universities at Coventry, Rennes, Lisbon and Coruna in north west Spain. The six research groups will continue their work for a further 18 months.
The plan is to collate all the historical information on storms in western Europe and their effect on coastal zones. The researchers are seeking to bring together data from a variety of sources involving old records and more modern computer-based ones.
They want to look at the frequency, impact and pattern of storms and see whether storm generation can be analysed to allow a thread of predictability to be identified. If that happens, says Dr Devoy, who has been involved in six previous EU projects, it may well become possible to predict what might happen in future. Armed with this knowledge, the western European states, whose coastlines are regularly buffeted by storms, will be able to plan for eventualities and perhaps take preventative action.
The evidence is being amassed from sources as far back as the 17th century and even before, but for obvious reasons, records are much more reliable from the 19th century onwards.
The researchers will also use information from satellites. Eventually, the material will be brought together in a detailed report which will use computer imaging to outline past coastline reliefs, intermediate changes and what may happen in future. It may lead to new management plans for coastal zones.