Where exactly are we headed with the Omicron variant?

Good morning. “Hold the collective nerve.” That was the message from Taoiseach Micheál Martin last night on how to face the threat from the Omicron variant, which has already made landfall here and is expected to spread rapidly in the coming days and weeks.

But who was the message directed at? At the public, certainly: hold firm, limit your social contacts, observe the restrictions that are in place, don’t be doing the 12 pubs of Christmas, sure two or three will do.

But was the message also directed at Dr Tony Holohan and his colleagues in Nphet? Hold your nerve, lads. Don’t be losing the run of yourselves and trying to bounce us into a lockdown. Tighten the existing restrictions if you want, but we can’t shut the country down again. And for God’s sake, leave the schools alone.

The apprehension that Nphet would recommend sweeping further restrictions this week has been palpable around Government since last week. Many politicians doubt that such restrictions would be effective because they would not get the sort of public buy-in required; and even if they had limited effectiveness, they would be hugely unpopular among many people.

Rush to add hundreds of GPs and pharmacists to Covid booster programme in race against Omicron

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The Government would be blamed by parents for closing schools, by the hospitality industry for closing pubs and restaurants, by lots of people for failing to manage the pandemic effectively and by everyone for ruining Christmas.

At the same time, if Nphet recommends restrictions, it would be hard for the Government - considering what happened last year - to resist.

Holohan and Nphet modeller-in-chief Prof Philip Nolan met the three leaders of the Coalition parties last night, but all Government sources would say is that the meeting had been constructive.

This is what people say when the meeting has been constructive. It is also what people say when there has been a blazing row. Either way, Nphet will make up its own mind - that much we know. And then the Government will have to decide what to do and then take the consequences, one way or the other.

The papers are full of the plans to battle the variant with a souped-up programme of booster vaccinations. This was the mainstay of Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly’s briefing of the Cabinet yesterday, which also included details of the Irish contribution to the effort to vaccinate developing countries.

But Opposition parties tackled the Taoiseach in the Dáil about delays to the booster programme, as well as posing the rather obvious question - why is there such a scramble now? Those questions are likely to get another hearing today.

It’s also likely the Opposition will want to know just what Nphet’s projections for the spread of the new variant are. In other words: where exactly are we going, because it’s not clear what the answer to that is.

Our lead story is here.

Paul Cullen has an explainer on the threat from Omicron here.

Dr Mike Ryan briefed the Institute of International and European Affairs yesterday.

Research shows public opinion is divided on further restrictions.

Johnson suffers large Tory rebellion

Meanwhile, as predicted, Boris Johnson endured a huge revolt of his MPs against further Covid restrictions, with almost 100 of them voting against the measures, which were only passed with the support of the Labour Party. There is now open talk of a leadership challenge. Denis Staunton's report is here, and his analysis here.

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Michael McDowell, however, is not amused.

Kathy Sheridan on Finland's prime minister, who went clubbing until 4am, if you don't mind.

Mark Paul on the company that took €1.8 million in wage supports from the State and then paid the same amount in dividends to an offshore company controlled by the family that owns the business.

There were questions in the Dáil late last night on the contract for the National Broadband Plan, but the Government continues to insist there's nothing to see here. Sarah Burns reports.

Playbook

Private Members’ business this morning with the Rural Independents proposing a Bill that would require pain relief for a foetus during later abortions. There’s Leaders’ Questions at noon, Taoiseach’s Questions (though the Taoiseach will not be present, being off to Brussels) and various pieces of Government legislation, until the weekly votes at 10pm and adjournment at 10.30pm.

The Seanad also has a busy day, including all stages of the annual Bill to provide for community rating in health insurance, which has to be passed before the end of the year and is always left to the last minute. There’s a motion on equitable access to vaccines that starts at 6pm and runs until adjournment at 8pm.

Quiet enough day at the committees, but there will surely be a crowd in for a hearing at the sports committee about women in sport, which has Minister of State for Sport (and Government chief whip) Jack Chambers in to answer questions, as well as Sport Ireland and the Federation of Irish Sport.

The finance committee has the National Lottery in, so you know what to expect there. Bernard Durkan on the warpath.

A full schedule of the day's business in Leinster House is here.

The December European summit gets under way in Brussels. Even more seasonal is the Maynooth College Christmas carol service, which takes place at 7.30pm this evening. You can watch it here.

As ever, we’ll keep you up to date during the day.