Support for Fine Gael and Leo Varadkar falls in latest poll

Support for the Fine Gael party and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's personal approval ratings have slipped in recent months, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll.

A three-point fall in Fine Gael support and a five-point drop in Mr Varadkar’s rating mark the end of an encouraging run in the polls for the Taoiseach and his party.

However, the Taoiseach remains comfortably the most popular political leader and Fine Gael the strongest party, holding a five-point lead over its nearest rivals in Fianna Fáil.

Sinn Féin gains by three points for an encouraging showing under its new leader Mary Lou McDonald.

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The state of the parties, when undecided voters are excluded, is: Fine Gael 31 per cent (down three points compared to the last poll in January); Fianna Fáil 26 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin 22 per cent (up three); Labour 5 per cent (up one); Independents/Others 16 per cent (down two).

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 and over in face-to-face interviews. The interviews were conducted at 120 sampling points in all constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 per cent.

Satisfaction unchanged

Satisfaction with the Government remains unchanged at 44 per cent, a relatively high number for this metric. By comparison, the Government's current rating is higher than at any time under both the present administration and the previous administration led by Enda Kenny.

Today’s poll suggests the trend of steady Fine Gael gains which had extended since the current Government was formed almost two years ago, has now stalled.

In that period, support for the party had grown from the mid-20s at the time of the election in 2016 to the mid 30s late last year and early this year. However, the fall in support for Fine Gael, allied to the decline in personal approval for Mr Varadkar, suggests this period is now over.

While Mr Varadkar’s personal rating falls from 60 per cent in January to 55 per cent, his rating is not only by far the highest of any political leader today, it is higher than any political leader in the post-crash period.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin sees his rating fall marginally by two points to 40 per cent, while Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald debuts in the series with a 39 per cent satisfaction rating. Labour leader Brendan Howlin’s approval rating is unchanged at 18 per cent.

The “core” vote for the parties - that is, before undecideds were excluded - compared with the last Irish Times poll in October, was: Fine Gael 24 per cent (down two); Fianna Fáil 21 per cent (up one); Labour 4 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin 18 per cent (up three); Independents/Others 12 per cent (down three).

Undecided voters were at 21 per cent, unchanged since the last poll.

Younger voters

Fine Gael support remains highest amongst the wealthiest voters and farmers, while Fianna Fáil’s strongest backers are older and rural voters. The party is stronger in Dublin, however, than it has been in recent polls.

Sinn Féin remains most popular among younger voters and those in the least well-off sections of society, though the party sees some progress amongst middle class voters since the last poll.

Among the smaller parties and independents, the Green Party is at 3 per cent (no change) amongst voters declaring a preference, Solidarity-People Before Profit is at 2 per cent (no change), the Social Democrats are at 1 per cent (no change), Independents4Change are at 1 per cent (down one), the Independent Alliance is at 1 per cent (no change) and non-party Independents are on 6 per cent (no change). Other groups and parties are on 2 per cent (down 1).