Let’s deal: shape of Brexit set to emerge

Good morning.

Almost two-and-a-half years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, we are now on the cusp of finding just what shape Brexit will take. It has been a long road to this point, with Theresa May's initial vision of a glorious "red, white and blue" Brexit giving way to a much closer relationship with the EU than she and many in her government could have imagined.

Undoubtedly, May’s mistake in calling a snap general election in 2017, which cost her a working majority in the House of Commons, weakened her initial vision, and the have-cake-and-eat-it approach favoured by Boris Johnson and others was always likely to collide with reality.

But it was the vexed issue of the Irish Border that ultimately pulled May toward the shape of a Withdrawal Agreement that many in London - both Remainers and Eurosceptics - view with disgust.

Brexit: May warns of ‘difficult days ahead’ as cabinet backs withdrawal deal

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Q&A: What has just happened in the Brexit negotiations?

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Brexit explained: Why does the Border matter and what is the backstop?

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Bertie Ahern: Government must back May to ‘avoid chaos’

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As first reported by the The Irish Times last week, the Withdrawal Agreement will include one backstop, with an EU-UK customs union at its core and additional measures for Northern Ireland, on both customs and regulations, to ensure there is no hard Irish Border.

From London, Denis Staunton writes our lead story and notes that Dublin is insistent it has not given way on the fact that the backstop - the insurance policy to avoid a hard border even if there is no future EU-UK trade deal - must remain in place "unless and until" such deal that avoids a hard border is in place.

With the outline of an exit deal agreed between the EU and UK, attention will be focused on London today. May has called a special Cabinet meeting for 2pm and is meeting some ministers one-on-one in advance in an attempt to secure as much backing for her deal as she can.

How the UK could exit the provisions of the backstop became a key issue for many ministers in London in recent weeks. Accepting that Britain cannot unilaterally decide that it no longer wants the backstop to apply - although a future review is anticipated - is likely to be a major difficulty for many UK ministers.

In an analysis piece, Denis says all eyes will be on key ministers such as Brexit secretary Dominic Raab. Pat Leahy has an explainer on what has actually happened in recent days , while Paddy Smyth reports from Brussels that the European Commission is stepping up its preparations for a "no deal" outcome. Gerry Moriarty takes the temperature of the DUP here. It's chilly, as you'd imagine.

In Dublin, the Cabinet meets at 9.30am and is expected to approve the draft Withdrawal Agreement. The Government has maintained a disciplined silence thus far, although Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will be expected to give some details to the Dáil when he takes Leaders’ Questions at noon.

If May succeeds in getting her deal through her cabinet and the House of Commons - a whopper “if” - Varadkar and Tánaiste Simon Coveney will have achieved a major and undeniable success. The Border will remain open, the Good Friday Agreement will have been protected and the backstop will have tied London closer to Brussels than the former initially wanted, crucially protecting trade flows between Ireland and Britain.

And yet, as yours truly argues here, the backstop may be issue that makes the Withdrawal Agreement unpalatable to the House of Commons. A rejection of May's deal could inch Britain closer to a crashing out of the EU without a deal, even though all say they want to avoid such a scenario.

Dublin can only look on as London makes up its mind. Today will be only the first dramatic day of many in Westminster.

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Conor Gallagher and Marie O'Halloran report that former Garda Commissioner Martin Callinan will not be able to fight the upcoming legal action taken by whistleblower Maurice McCabe if the State decides to settle the case, as is widely expected .

And Kathy Sheridan says Irish women are not hallucinating about glass ceilings in Irish universities.

Playbook

The Cabinet meets today to sign off the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

Dáil

Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy is on oral questions at 10.30am.

Leaders’ Questions kicks off at noon, followed by questions on promised legislation and Taoiseach’s Questions.

Fianna Fáil has a PMB calling for a new development agency for Dublin’s North Inner City.

The Social Welfare, Pensions and Civil Registration Bill is at second stage.

The African Development (Bank and Fund) Bill 2018 and the Local Government Bill 2018 resume second stage.

Financial Motions from Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe will also be taken.

Seanad

The Children’s Health Bill 2018 is at report stage in the Upper House.

The Fossil Fuel Divestment Bill 2016 and the Home Building Finance Bill 2018 are at second stage.

The Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2017 is at committee stage.

Committees

Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan is at the Justice committee to discuss the future of policing report.

Housing, Planning and Local Government has a session on social housing financing.

Minister for Housing Simon Harris will give a quarterly update to the health committee on general health issues.

The Rural and Community Development Committee will discuss how to sustain “small rural and community business” with the Irish League of Credit Unions, the Irish Rural Link and others.

Transport, Tourism and Sport will launch its report on transport for people with disabilities. Ministers Shane Ross and Brendan Griffin will also discuss the ten-year national sport strategy plan with members.

Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht has a session on the Heritage Council Strategy 2018-2022.

The Joint Committee on Climate Action examines the third report of the Citizens’ Assembly.

The European Affairs Committee has an “exchange of views on the work of the Committee of the Regions to include the Future of Europe debate, the Report of the Task force on Subsidiarity, Proportionality and ‘Doing Less More Efficiently’ and the UK withdrawal negotiations”.

Irish language, the Gaeltacht and the Islands has Údarás na Gaeltachta on its strategy plan 2018-2020.