The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll highlights the extent to which the Government is damned if they do and damned if they don't when it comes to any easing of coronavirus restrictions.

Voters are deeply divided in their views on the level of restrictions currently in place. While the largest proportion (43 per cent) agree that the level of restrictions is about right, 31 per cent feel that there are too many restrictions damaging business and the economy and a further 24 per cent think that there are not enough restrictions to safeguard the health of the population. We may no longer be “all in this together”.

Fieldwork for this latest poll was conducted by telephone on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a national sample of 1,200 Irish adults aged 18 years and upwards, covering every constituency in the country. The vast majority of interviewing took place before Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s address to the nation on Tuesday evening.

A clear divergence in views on the restrictions by age is also notable. Those aged 18-24 are most likely to feel that there are too many restrictions (51 per cent), which is more than double the number of over-65s who feel that we have gone too far (19 per cent).

Over-65s, the group identified as being most at risk of death from the virus, are keenest on more restrictions (30 per cent), not surprisingly, but still the majority of even this vulnerable cohort do not wish to see further restrictions.

Top priority

Looking ahead to what may happen over the coming months, voters were asked if they would like to see a number of restrictions eased immediately, before the summer or after the summer.

Schools are the top priority for immediate reopening, supported by 44 per cent of voters.

The childcare pressures that current restrictions put on families, often with two working parents, and on women who still tend to be mainly responsible for childcare, come through in the poll findings. Those aged 35-49 were most likely to be in favour of the immediate reopening of schools at 51 per cent, followed closely by women (48 per cent) and those in the ABC1 socio-economic grouping (48 per cent).

Construction sites should be opened immediately in the opinion of 43 per cent of those interviewed. Voters in the C2 socio-economic grouping, which mainly includes skilled manual workers, were most likely to favour the immediate reopening of construction (50 per cent).

The public’s top priorities for easing restrictions, not necessarily immediately but before the summer, are allowing people to visit each other’s homes (58 per cent), the reopening of non-essential retail and services (55 per cent) and allowing people to travel outside their county (50 per cent).

The majority of voters (58 per cent), favour delaying the reopening of pubs and restaurants for indoor dining until after the summer, although the appetite for only opening restaurants sooner may be greater than for pubs and restaurants combined.

When it comes to travel abroad this summer, 53 per cent believe that it should not be allowed until the majority of the Irish population has been vaccinated. A further 41 per cent think that travel abroad should only be allowed if those returning to Ireland have a negative Covid-19 test and quarantine is enforced. It would appear that the summer travel ball is very much in the Government’s court, with the public in favour of travel if the vaccination programme progresses as planned and as long as testing and enforced quarantine are in place.

Zero-Covid

In recent weeks there has been much discussion about the best strategy for exiting lockdown. Our poll asked should the Government bank on a successful outcome from a widespread vaccination programme or should a zero-Covid strategy be pursued? The view among voters is clear: 68 per cent are in favour of going back to normal once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated while 30 per cent are in favour of zero-Covid.

If vaccination is the best way out of lockdown, our poll findings are hugely encouraging in this regard. If offered the vaccine tomorrow, 80 per cent of voters said that they would take it, rising to a high of 94 per cent among the over-65s. Only 14 per cent said that they would not take the vaccine, if offered it tomorrow. Of course, not wishing to take the vaccine tomorrow does not mean never and as vaccines prove their safety and efficacy, attitudes may change.

In theory, a widespread and timely vaccination programme should allow the Government to lead the nation out of lockdown without the need to walk the tightrope of opposing views on restrictions. However, if the vaccination targets set down are not met, the Government will be caught between the public opinion rock of opening up too slowly and the hard place of opening up too soon.

Aisling Corcoran is a director of Ipsos/MRBI