General Election 2016: Long-term plans put to test in final sprint

It may not seem like it, but we are now entering the electoral end zone.

A dull and boring general election has yet to catch the public imagination. Week two of the 2016 campaign largely passed without event, apart from Thursday’s television debate.

And the polls have remained stubbornly stuck, with a large bloc still voting for Independents – a worry for Fine Gael and Labour.

However, after months of phoney war the crucial period of the final 10 days of the campaign is almost upon us.

Polling day is less than a fortnight away and the last day of campaigning is Wednesday week, since the broadcast moratorium kicks in on Thursday week, February 25th.

All parties have had their strategies in place for months by now, if not a year, with this period in mind.

Key teams will attempt to close the game in favour of their party, but what will they do, and have long-laid plans seen last minute changes?

Fine Gael

The Fine Gael strategy has been geared towards a strong finish and many in the party remember the 2007 general election, when

Bertie Ahern

swept to victory at the last.

"I don't think there is any chance of us finishing flat," said one party figure this week. "The one that is most comparable is 2007. Fianna Fáil killed us in the last couple of days, going on the economy."

The last general election also plays on Fine Gael minds. In 2011, it fell back in the face of attacks from the Labour Party as the campaign closed.

Party sources insist the wobble at the start of the campaign did not knock Fine Gael off its intended course. “We weren’t necessarily in total control of it but we are absolutely now,” said one.

The coming week is likely to see an intensification of attacks on Fianna Fáil, combined with warnings of the uncertain nature of the world economy and comparisons to other European countries, all designed to ask voters the question of what government they really want.

“It will be an intensification of the messaging,” said one source of the party’s economic competency and stability pitch. Or, in blunter terms, voters will be told: ‘You have a f**king choice to make.’

“It is the winnables that we are after. And the winnables are ‘the divil you know is better than the divil you don’t know’.”

Or, as another put it: “There will be some who make a 51-49 decision in favour of voting for us. We need those people to break our way.”

Labour

Labour figures say they expected some movement in the polls by now, and are adjusting their approach accordingly.

The “balance in government” argument has been well-rehearsed but the party now intends to raise the spectre of there being no government at all post-election, rather than one dominated by Fine Gael.

“This idea of no government, that is starting to enter the mix now,” said one source. Another attack line is likely to be how Fianna Fail can credibly form a government. Week two was always identified as a fallow period when policies on childcare and housing were laid out.

“Now as we come into the final two weeks we are back into the core stability and balance message,” added the source.

The idea of Labour providing balance to Fine Gael in government will be “rammed down people’s throats”.

Thursday's debate may have seen Enda Kenny and Joan Burton form a united team, but Burton now has a delicate balancing act to pull off – stressing that she will provide difference and balance to Fine Gael, while also maintaining a coherent government front.

The alternative to date may have been the bogeyman of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government but one alternative now is “no government”.

Fianna Fáil

Of all the parties and party leaders, Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin have had the best run in since Christmas, topped off with Martin’s narrow victory in Thursday night’s television debate.

He has struck a political chord with his focus on public services and fairness in society. Fine Gael’s offering is at its core an economic one, but it is now talking about public services too.

Internal research conducted by the party last summer concluded that the electorate does not buy into the “stability versus chaos” narrative favoured by the Coalition.

Martin had already been highlighting public services as a key issue, and party figures say their private research backed this up.

Despite the good mood around its campaign to date, Fianna Fáil’s poll figures have also remained static – and, crucially, not much better than its 2011 general election showing.

Given Martin’s reluctance to entertain an alliance with Fine Gael or Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil could be squeezed if the public buys the “no government” argument others will make.

Party sources believe the party is making headway on the ground – with voters who lent their support to Fine Gael in 2011 coming back – and say Martin’s only option is to continue to appeal to its base, and make sure that its loyal voters return.

This week’s manifesto, largely comprised of traditional Fianna Fáil policies, is seen as an appeal to that base.

Party sources say they are also ready for the negative attacks they expect from Fine Gael from next week on. “It’s keep the head down, stay focused,” said one source. “And it’ll be a ground war.”

Sinn Féin

In comparison to the heady days of the midterm of this Coalition’s life, party figures now say a good election would see them polling 14-16 per cent.

Sinn Féin sources say they always believed poll ratings around the 25 per cent mark were exaggerated, and maintain a yield of Dáil seats in the early 20s would constitute a successful election.

Sinn Féin too says it is ready for the final run-in to polling day and believes it has established itself as the “clear Opposition” to the Government. Its task as the campaign concludes to maintain its discipline and repeat its message.

One source said its good start to the campaign – when Pearse Doherty questioned Fine Gael's budgetary figures – would not have any benefit come polling day and acknowledges the recent focus on security issues would affect the "soft underbelly" of those who may have flirted with a lower preference vote for Sinn Féin.

They will never explicitly say it, but the sense is that the party wants to now lock down its core vote and ensure those people who say they would vote Sinn Féin actually turn out to do so.

An anti-water charges march planned for next Saturday will provide an opportunity to galvanise the core vote, according to one figure, who also believes that after experience in presidential, local and European elections, Sinn Féin is now better placed to get out its vote.