Abnormal Dáil service resumes

Can we expect a semblance of normality this week after all the shenanigans of the past two-and-a-half months?

Well, yes and no.

On the face of it, the weekly business has a familiar ring to it. There’s Leader’s Questions and priority questions to a Minister, and then there is Private Members’ business.

But the ‘no’ part is that we will have all that normal stuff, but it will be very weird and abnormal. It will be like looking at one of those funny mirrors at a fair, where everything is distorted.

For one, the ‘normal’ practice of this new Dáil is the Government will lose more votes than it wins. There’s a fair old chance it will lose the first one today - or it might concede before the race even starts.

Fianna Fáil was very cute in choosing its Private Members' legislation motion. It trawled through the archives and found one of its own that Sinn Féin actually supported in March 2015.

Michael McGrath's Central Bank (Variable Mortgage Rate) Bill 2016 is clever in that it reflects Fianna Fáil policy but is also within the range of Sinn Féin's policy. The thesis is a classic opposition one. The banks are ripping off customers on variable mortgage rates, and something should be done about it.

Michael Noonan made a great hue and cry about tackling the banks on this issue and actually achieved, well, very little. He got AIB to reduce rates to roughly tally with lower European rates. The only reason he succeeded was because the State owned AIB.

The other banks told Noonan to go and take a running jump - though in slightly more polite terms.

When we contacted both parties yesterday, they naturally enough said they were first and foremost concerned for hard-pressed households paying punitive variable interest rates.

It was surely a coincidence that the first motion was one that the main Opposition parties could so readily agree on, thus guaranteeing a defeat for the Government if it decided to oppose, or amend, the legislation. It allowed both to be ‘constructive’ and ‘destructive’ at the same time.

It was a flexing of muscles, there's no doubt about that. Here's our report on this development.

So nothing will be normal. Leaders’ Questions will involve contribution from five, and possibly six, Opposition leaders every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. That should be lots of fun. Well, not . . .

Then, Enda Kenny comes out and says he will continue as Taoiseach for a full term (Sarah Bardon writes about it here).

Of course, the junior ministers and Mr Kenny’s 11 Seanad nominees have yet to be named, so there’s enough new stuff going on to make it a week that’s more abnormal than normal.

When it settles down, it will be all about compromise, they keep on telling us. I’m not so sure. Remember the golden political rule: Never make a compromise you can’t break.

The 32nd Dáil will be seldom boring.

The Secret Seven

Another political golden rule is: the smaller a left-wing party is, the more likely a split.

As the Labour Party ship quickly sank in the February election, at least the orchestra played in unison (if dominated by wailing violins).

But as soon as the seven survivors clambered onto the life raft, any patina of unity vanished, and they started bickering with each other.

There is only one of the seven who really wants the leadership and has fire in his belly. The problem for him is that none of the other six particularly want him to be the leader.

The other main contender really, really doesn’t want the job that badly but will take it to prevent the other guy from getting it.

The parliamentary party meets today, and the leadership issue is sure to come up.

Alan Kelly’s big problem is that he might have difficulty finding a seconder. With no seconder he can’t stand.

The possibility he might command more support among the party’s wider membership becomes irrelevant. If he can’t get off the base, it’s a strike out, and there’s no point in talking about home runs.

Kelly has made a few barnstorming speeches in the past few weeks and has clearly appealed over the heads of his Dáil colleagues to the wider membership.

But it looks like most of the other TDs will stand their ground and are prepared to take a short-term hit for not allowing Kelly to run. His stock is low with colleagues who feel he over-promised and was not a great director of elections.

The instincts might tell one or two that they should second him even though they don’t support him, in the interests of giving him a chance and opening the leadership question to the wider membership.

But look at what happened when British Labour MPs who were not supporters of Jeremy Corbyn signed his nomination papers to allow him into the race. They never expected him to win - but he did, for better or for worse.

Ditto with Kelly. He really divides opinion. Some think he is the only one with the energy and capability to recover the party’s fortunes. Others think he will drive it into ruin.

It is on our front page this morning.