Pendulum swings back, just a little

Senator George Mitchell still has an open ticket for his journey back to the United States - but he'd like to take flight today…

Senator George Mitchell still has an open ticket for his journey back to the United States - but he'd like to take flight today or tomorrow. From others you hear conflicting opinions - a little bit of hope here, much negativity there - but as for the senator, he still believes it's do-able. That's Americans for you.

There were a few others of like mind at Stormont last night, notwithstanding the heavy and weary atmosphere. Not all politicians have fallen into the trough of despond, at least not yet.

The pendulum swung back just a little yesterday from despair to very guarded mutterings that there is still a chance. Ideas were being floated about in the nervy surroundings of Castle Buildings, Stormont, but at the time of writing there were no takers for them.

Sources were short on detail but they insisted a deal was still possible. As so often stated, however, it needed movement from David Trimble and Gerry Adams on the devolution/decommissioning issue. The question was who would blink first and would that risk-taker be treated to a friendly blink in reciprocation.

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Former IRA prisoner and senior Sinn Fein negotiator Gerry Kelly put it bluntly to the Sinn Fein Assembly party on Thursday that the review was "finished".

The line was that it would take "something in the realms of a miracle" to salvage the review. Mr Kelly blamed unionists for the impasse and indicated that Sinn Fein believed that on principle, and in his gut, Mr Trimble had no intention of softening his "no guns, no government" stance.

But it was also interesting that Mr Kelly spoke of the "remarkably" positive "atmospherics" between Sinn Fein and the UUP during the two weeks of negotiations in London. "Despite this real sense of engagement", though, they couldn't strike a deal.

UUP sources were also careful not to heighten expectations. They were in a bleak frame of mind. "I would caution against being spun; I have no indication of any progress," said one UUP man.

Yesterday it was just the SDLP, Sinn Fein and the UUP talking at Stormont, with the two latter parties - those that have the key to breaking the deadlock - negotiating to around 9 p.m.

Much more of the same today, but this time with all the pro-agreement parties on board. It could be a late night.

Senator Mitchell, notwithstanding his open-ended travel arrangements, is exerting his muscle. Do it, or don't do it, but decide, was the line the senator was taking last night, according to good sources.

"This is make-your-mind-up time. There are no plans other than for tomorrow," said one talks insider last night, notwithstanding some unionists saying this could run through to Monday or Tuesday.

Despite the pessimism there were still grounds for some lingering faith in the possibility of a deal. Senior talks sources insisted Mr Trimble was very anxious to bring this review to a positive conclusion.

"I think David Trimble is ready to do a deal but he has to have something in return from Gerry Adams," one source said. He was convinced that the UUP leader was genuine in wanting the review and the Belfast Agreement to work. "He is not engaging in a charade; he is not playing the blame game," said this informed neutral observer.

"I don't think anybody wants to be seen as the one who walked away. People should beware of saying this is all over. This process is very stubborn," he added.

SDLP sources expressed particular frustration with Sinn Fein. "The Ulster Unionists would crawl over hot coals to get a deal but at the moment they are getting nothing from Sinn Fein," said one figure.

He believed what was preventing Mr Adams from taking a risk was his experience in July when Mr Trimble rejected the party's "Breaking the Impasse" paper, also known as the putative IRA "seismic shift" on IRA decommissioning.

"But maybe it's time for a risk. Sinn Fein are on the cusp of getting into government; they want to win more votes than us; they want to hold the balance of power in the South. Well, there's no chance of any of that without some form of decommissioning. They must know that. So why not just do it," added the SDLP man with some vehemence.

It seems that today both Mr Adams and Mr Trimble must decide whether they can take chances for the Belfast Agreement, although here it must be stated that if there is a chance of success the review period could be extended.

If the politicians can't do the business it will be for the two governments to step into the breach. There were lots of different views and mood swings at Castle Buildings yesterday,

But, amid the exhaustion, a little - just a little - bit of hope of a breakthrough.