MIDDLE EAST: Another intifada could result from ongoing stasis in Israel and the Palestinian territories, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
ISRAEL’S WAR on Gaza ushered in a black, bleak year for the Middle East peace process.
Some 1,400 Gazans died, 5,000 were wounded – the vast majority civilians – and thousands lost their homes during Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground offensive. Three Israeli civilians and 10 soldiers were killed.
The war enraged Arabs and Muslims and precipitated protests around the world, but Western governments did not press Israel to halt its offensive as they had during earlier Israeli campaigns.
This deepened Arab and Muslim alienation from the West and exposed Israel to greater popular condemnation in Europe and the US than ever before.
South African Justice Richard Goldstone headed an investigation which accused Israel and Hamas, which rules Gaza, of war crimes and crimes against humanity. His report was endorsed by the Human Rights Council. Israel and Hamas could face international legal action if they fail to investigate and prosecute those accused of crimes. The war and Israel’s refusal to lift its blockade of Gaza exacerbated the destitution of Gaza’s 1.5 million Palestinians, 85 per cent of whom are fed by cash-strapped UN agencies.
Arabs and Muslims were temporarily mollified when US President Barack Obama launched appeals to them in Turkey and Egypt. He made a valiant attempt to halt Israeli settlement works in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, seen as the major obstacle to the emergence of a Palestinian state beside Israel and a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.
But Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who heads a right-wing coalition, flatly refused to impose a total settlement freeze. He proposed to halt fresh building in the West Bank while completing more than 3,500 housing units being built, and escalating settlement in East Jerusalem, the sector of the city Palestinians demand for the capital of their state. He proposed funding certain settlements as “national priority” areas.
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, who halted negotiations with Israel, has refused to return to the table as long as Israel continues to build in colonies. This means the peace process, which has seen no real progress since talks began in 1991, is on the verge of expiring.
EU foreign ministers managed to stem the rising tide of Arab and Muslim anger and frustration by issuing a detailed statement ahead of the bloc’s year-end summit. The EU statement called for the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, said Jerusalem should be the capital of Palestine and Israel, and rejected changes made by Israel in borders unless approved by the Palestinians. The EU also demanded a total Israeli settlement freeze and urgent negotiations with a defined goal and timetable.
While Palestinian commentators do not believe the EU will be able to influence Israel’s behaviour, the statement put pressure on Washington to take a tougher line and bound the bloc and member states to take action, either collectively or individually. Norway decided to pull investments from an Israeli firm involved in construction of the West Bank wall. Britain called for goods produced in West Bank settlements to be labelled as such.
The EU is under pressure from its own citizens to do more. In the wake of the Gaza war, trade unions, academic associations and firms have stepped up action against Israel’s settlement expansion and harsh treatment of Palestinians. While Israel, which has reacted defiantly, cannot be expected to alter its course in coming months, pressure for change is rising.
Unless negotiations resume in early 2010 on terms acceptable to the Palestinians, Israel sets free nearly 1,000 prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, a soldier held by Hamas, or Fatah and Hamas reconcile, the West Bank regime, restructured by the US and funded by the EU, is likely to continue its downward slide.
President Abbas, who failed to secure a Palestinian state through talks, is under mounting pressure to step down. If there is no unifying figure to take his place, his departure could precipitate a power struggle within his Fatah organisation, destabilising the West Bank and permitting Hamas to reassert itself there.
The person most Palestinians feel could meet the challenge is Marwan Barghouti, jailed for life by Israel, which has not yet decided to free him in the proposed prisoner swap. Barghouti, a populist Fatah leader, has promised to reconcile with Hamas, launch mass civil resistance against the Israeli occupation and negotiate a deal for a Palestinian state.
If the stasis persists, Palestinian commentators predict dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and the eruption of another armed rising (intifada) which would put paid to 18 years of peace process characterised by a great deal of process, but no peace.