Minister for Justice Michael McDowell said yesterday it did not really matter whether Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny would be the next taoiseach.
The crucial issue was whether the Progressive Democrats or Labour would be in coalition to dictate the direction of government policy.
"Now that we are in the run-in to the next general election, attention is being focused on parties' relative standing in the opinion polls. People are wondering whether Bertie or Enda will be taoiseach in the next Dáil. The media is looking forward to a neck-and-neck race between two competing government combinations.
"I have to say that I find the focus on who will be the next taoiseach to be significantly overblown. If the history of the last 35 years has taught us anything, it is that the most important party in a government is not the senior party but the junior party.
"The larger party may provide the taoiseach. But the junior party provides the essential direction of the government. The larger party may lead. The junior party defines the direction."
Speaking at a PD function in Waterford, Mr McDowell said the lesson of coalition governments from 1973 to 2006 was clear.
The Cosgrave government from 1973 to 1977 was defined by Labour's insistence on a wealth tax. The FitzGerald government of the 1980s was also defined by Labour, which blocked spending cuts and insisted on a residential property tax.
He contrasted that with the Fianna Fáil-PD government of 1989 to 1992 in which the PDs were the defining influence. That government reduced the top rate of income tax from 56 per cent to 48 per cent, and the basic rate from 32 to 27 per cent, he said.
When Labour replaced the PDs in 1992, the government led by Albert Reynolds didn't introduce a single cut in either rate of income tax, but instead brought in a 1 per cent income levy. In John Bruton's rainbow government, Labour again defined the agenda, Mr McDowell said.
When Fianna Fáil and the PDs came to office in 1997 the junior partner again defined the Government. The basic rate of income tax was cut from 26 to 20 per cent, the top rate from 48 to 42 per cent. Residential property tax was abolished. Capital gains tax was reduced from 40 to 20 per cent, corporation tax to 12.5 per cent.
"The lesson of the last 35 years is clear. Regardless of which party leads a government, the defining partner [in terms of policy] is the junior partner," the Minister said.
"It's not the more bulky bread which gives a sandwich its taste. Rather, it's the meat which gives a sandwich its flavour. It won't matter that much whether Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny leads the government after the next election. What will matter is which party is the defining partner in that government.
"The real choice the Irish people must consider at the next election is not between Bertie and Enda. The real choice is between the doctrinaire leftists of Labour, Sinn Féin and the Greens on the one hand and the economically liberal Progressive Democrats on the other."
He said Labour wanted to impose more taxes on higher-income earners. Sinn Féin proposed to raise the rate of corporation tax, abolish private medicine and raise local taxes. The Greens wanted new taxes, including ones on carbon fuels, property sites and pollution levies.
"The real choice is between the interventionist leftists of Labour, Sinn Féin, the Greens, Joe Higgins TD, Seamus Healy TD and Uncle Tom Cobley TD on the one hand and the economically liberal Progressive Democrats on the other. The real choice is between those who raise taxes and those who lower them."