ON A good day, the Green Party could find itself in less than two months time with three to five TDs holding the balance of power and negotiating a programme for a government which will include a Green Party cabinet minister.
On a bad day, it could win no new seats and watch its sole deputy, Trevor Sargent of Dublin North, struggle to maintain his seat.
At its Convention on Saturday the Green Party made it clear that it wants to hold the balance of power after the election and that if it does, it will attempt to drive a hard bargain and possibly gain representation in government.
But party figures admitted that its prospects of success were difficult to gauge. While opinion polls showed the party at around 4 per cent nationally in 1995 and early 1996, that figure has been down to 2 to 3 per cent more recently. The Greens are running candidates in 26 of the 41 Dail constituencies but most have a low level of voter recognition.
But for the Greens, this does not matter as much as for other political parties. In the 1991 local elections, for example, one Green Party candidate for Dublin City Council left the State for the election campaign and heard she was elected while she was in California. Green voters tend to vote for a party rather than a personality, and if the party manages to portray itself as the "anti politician party" during the campaign, it could reap a considerable reward.
The Green Party worries the established political parties, particularly Labour and Democratic Left. It attracts not just the votes of committed environmentalists but those of the young who are alienated from the established political parties. Labour and Democratic Left fear that the Greens may replace them as the party of protest.
However, the Green Party is not simply a party of protest or a woolly pressure group to save whales and seal pups and close down Sellafield. Its platform involves a fundamental challenge to the values of materialist society. In particular, it objects to the political consensus that economic growth is the measure of society's success, and that the more growth there is, the better off we all are.
At the convention Mr Dan Boyle criticised the "blind faith in economic indicators that do little to measure the quality of life that exists in our society". Economic growth has not reduced unemployment or narrowed the gape between rich and poor but has brought environmental and social degradation, according to the party.
Their "big economic idea", said Mr Boyle, is the introduction of green taxes - moving away from income tax and PRSI to an energy tax, tax on land use and on waste and pollution. They support charges for local government services that are overused and would consider water charges on the basis that water usage is metered in individual households.
Mr John Gormley said the party swims against the tide on crime as well. It was the only political party represented in Leinster House to oppose the bail referendum; it talks about eliminating the causes of crime; petty criminals should not be imprisoned.
Speakers opposed intensive farming and called for the elimination of the use of pesticides, and their hostility to many current - agricultural practices will earns them few votes from Ireland's farmers. Individual candidates put forward party policies on everything from waste reduction to smoke free zones for Limerick, Galway and Waterford; ending live animal exports; reopening rural Garda stations; opposing the Dublin port tunnel and the proposed incinerator near Blanchardstown; and a host of other local, national and global issues.
All new ideas, said the party's environment spokesman Mr Gerry Boland, go through three stages: ridicule; discussion; acceptance. "We have passed the stage of ridicule and are firmly embarked on the discussion stage. We have a long road to travel and it is our role, as Greens, to move the public and its political representatives towards the third stage - acceptance - as quickly as possible."
Their potential to upset the conventional political apple cart has been recognised by the main parties. Last month, the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Sustainable Development published a 150 page report. Last week, Fianna Fail published a detailed environment policy. The other main parties will do the same in the next few weeks and next weekend, a section of the Labour Party conference will be devoted to the topic.
The environment is "in" for all political parties. The next two months will determine whether the Green Party can capitalise on the interest in their agenda.