EVEN BY the standards of the sometimes murky world of Japanese politics, it is an odd election.
If opinion polls are any indication, Naoto Kan will still be Japan's prime minister at the end of this week. The latest survey by Kyodo Newsputs his public support at over 67 per cent, far ahead of his challenger Ichiro Ozawa at about 23 points.
Yet, as the two men prepare for the internal vote that will decide who leads the ruling Democratic Party (DPJ) – and thus this ailing economic giant – few are prepared to predict the outcome. Articulate, popular and untainted by scandal, Mr Kan (67) should be the runaway favourite for party president. But Mr Ozawa (68), dubbed Japan’s shadow shogun, is giving him a run for money, despite allegations of corruption that will likely follow him into office. Many observers say the contest is now too close to call.
Long considered perhaps the most powerful figure in Japanese politics, Mr Ozawa stunned many when he stepped out of the shadows two weeks ago to directly challenge Mr Kan. His supporters say he did so to stop the party’s drift away from the principles that helped it end over half a century of rule by the conservative Liberal Democrats (LDP) last year.
One of the DPJ’s founders and a former party president, Mr Ozawa has cast his campaign in stark terms, saying that if he fails to win, “full-fledged democracy will never take root in Japan”. He and his followers accuse Mr Kan of handing power back to the unelected bureaucrats who have run the country since the second World War, and say the Democrats are its only chance to build a system of political accountability.
Mr Ozawa blames Mr Kan’s enthusiasm for fiscal austerity on the government’s drubbing in July elections. He says the public expects the party to deliver on last year’s election promises, which included an expansion of welfare spending funded by attacks on wasteful government spending. And many expect him to take a more independent line on Japan’s military alliance with Washington.
A scowling, backroom figure with a whiff of political sulphur, Mr Ozawa’s public image has been seen as a barrier to the prime minister’s office. But his career and strategic skills give him enormous clout within the political system.
Final polls on DPJ diet (parliament) members yesterday put the two men neck-and-neck, with 190 supporters each. Rank-and-filers are thought to favour Mr Kan, if only because he is likely to be the more voter-friendly. But nobody is discounting Mr Ozawa’s ability to pull off a coup. If Mr Ozawa wins, he’ll be Japan’s sixth leader in four years, and 15th in the last 20.
“There are a mountain of problems to tackle, from how to cope with prolonged deflation and the aging society with its low birthrate, to how to rebuild the fiscal infrastructure and social security systems,” warned the chairman of Japan’s largest business lobby, Hiromasa Yonekura, last week. “A leadership race that divides the ruling party may only create a political vacuum.” That division could worsen today, depending on the outcome of the election.
