Out of touch but still determined to stand alone

President Saparmurat Niyazov has decreed a 10-day public holiday to celebrate Turkmenistan's 10th year of independence.

President Saparmurat Niyazov has decreed a 10-day public holiday to celebrate Turkmenistan's 10th year of independence.

He has no intention of letting the war in Afghanistan, with which his country shares a 500-mile border, get in the way of his grandiose celebrations.

Some might wonder what the Turkmen have to celebrate. Living standards have deteriorated rapidly since independence, with about 70 per cent of the population now living below the poverty line.

Still, Turkmenistan has managed to avoid many of the problems which have afflicted other former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Tajikistan went through a civil war between government forces and Islamic militants that cost more than 50,000 lives. Uzbekistan lives with the threat and occasional military incursions of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

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But this largely desert land of about five million people has managed - like a central Asian North Korea - to hold to an isolated course through the sea of troubles that surrounds it.

"Our president is a friend to everybody," explains Guvanch, a 20-something cab driver, as he strolls across the central square of the capital, Ashgabad. "He didn't help the Americans. That's why we don't have any problems here."

Behind Guvanch looms the 220-ft Arch of Neutrality. It is a symbol of the country's policy of isolation, which is mainly aimed at countering the potentially domineering influences of Russia, Uzbekistan and Iran, whose northern border lies just 25 miles from Ashgabad. Atop the great arch is a revolving 35-ft golden statue of Mr Niyazov. His arms are raised to usher in the sun at dawn and bid it farewell at dusk.

It is a typical expression of what the president sees as his destiny, that he is the embodiment of the soul of the Turkmen people.

Mr Niyazov was the communist leader of the Turkmen Soviet Socialist Republic and saw it as only natural that he be elected president of the newly independent state, supposedly with the blessing of 99.5 per cent of the voters.

He has since adopted the title of Turkmenbashi, or leader of all Turkmen. Golden statues and giant posters of him adorn buildings across the country, his face is on every banknote, and a growing number of streets, towns, squares and airports are named after him.

The great leader has expressed general support for international steps against terrorism in the wake of the September 11th attacks. But in stark contrast to Uzbekistan, where US troops are already in place near the Afghan border, Turkmenistan has made it clear that its bases are not available for military operations in America's declared war on terrorism.

The country has however allowed UN agencies to run their north Afghan relief operations out of its territory.

Many of these agencies' foreign staff who were pulled out of northern Afghanistan after September 11th are now there.

They have set up cross-border operations to move emergency aid from the eastern city of Turkmenabad to Andkhoy in northern Afghanistan.

Turkmenistan could become an increasingly important hub for sending aid to Afghanistan, particularly if the security situation in Pakistan deteriorates. However, this increased humanitarian activity is likely to be the only major change the country will see unless the Afghan conflict takes some entirely unexpected turn.

There are no private newspapers or broadcasters here and the state media reveals little of events in Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world. On the third night of the US strikes on Afghanistan, for example, the evening news show began with an account of the president's movements that day, then came a report on the cotton harvest, then a piece on the upgrading of a desert pipeline. Afghanistan was not mentioned. The newspapers take a similarly navel-gazing approach to current affairs.

But real news can be picked up through Russian TV and radio, and people here are apprehensive about the conflict to the south. They remember all too well the Soviet misadventure in Afghanistan in the 1980s, when many of their young men were sent to fight and die there. Some fear that this crisis might spill over the border.

"We might get a lot of refugees here because of the attacks," says Aina, an office worker in her 30s. She prefers not to give her full name because talking to foreign reporters is a risky business here. "And among the refugees there might be people with weapons and they might try to take revenge on neighbouring countries that have helped the Americans."

But such fears seem overblown. The border regions may not be heavily guarded, but the inhospitable desert terrain on both sides is a natural deterrent. Afghan refugees have traditionally headed for either Iran or Pakistan, and since the current conflict began,

Mr Niyazov has made it clear that none is welcome in Turkmenistan. He has in the past even refused to allow the estimated one million ethnic Turkmen who have lived for decades in Afghanistan to return to their homeland.

The prospect of Taliban fighters heading there is also remote. The Taliban has no beef with Turkmenistan. Mr Niyazov disdains Islamic militancy as much as other Central Asian leaders. Of them all, however, he has maintained the closest links with the Taliban, while at the same time courting the Northern Alliance.

This delicate two-pronged approach is neatly summed up by the fact that Turkmenistan has two consulates in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan while allowing only the Northern Alliance to open an embassy in Ashgabad.

Economically, Turkmenistan relies heavily on income from gas and oil resources, but has failed to capitalise on the huge reserves it harbours.

Its pipeline routes run through Russia, thus limiting exports to more lucrative western markets. There have been numerous new pipeline projects announced over the past decade, but all have failed to materialise.

Mr Niyazov has long eyed Afghanistan as a route that could be hugely profitable. It could open up the Indian and Chinese markets, as well as providing a route to the ports of Pakistan.

If some sort of stable state emerges after the current conflict is over, Turkmenistan stands to gain enormously.