Women voters and the white working class are crucial, write JIM RUTENBERGand ALLISON KOPICKIin New York
FOR ALL of the Democratic attacks painting Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch elitist who will help the rich at the expense of the middle class, he is maintaining the traditional – and sizable – Republican advantage among a politically vital constituency, white working-class voters in the states most likely to decide the presidential election.
And despite concerted Republican efforts to use the weak economy to drive a wedge between President Barack Obama and female voters, the incumbent is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states.
Those findings, contained in the latest batch of Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News swing-state polls, highlight the stubborn divisions of this year’s presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states.
But they also help explain the intense efforts of the two campaigns to alter the balance in both groups, which together will go a long way towards determining the outcome.
Obama’s goal is to keep Romney from running up huge margins among white working-class voters – defined as those without college degrees and household incomes between $30,000 and $100,000 – who could give him the edge.
Results from surveys over the past week in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, combined with surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, show Romney appears to be holding his own with that group, but running no stronger than senator John McCain did four years ago.
Similarly, Romney is trying to peel off as many female voters as possible from Obama’s electoral coalition, hoping to offset the president’s advantages among single and non-white women by appealing to married and white women with a message about economic security and pocketbook issues.
But while the poll suggests Romney is making inroads among women in Colorado, where he is also showing strength against Obama by several other measures, support for Obama among women has otherwise held up in the battleground states. As a result, Obama has been able to stave off bigger losses in the most hotly contested states, in particular among independents, who are divided in Colorado and Wisconsin and supporting Romney in Virginia; and white men, who are supporting Romney by double-digit margins over the president in all three states.
Far more than national polls, which can track the mood of the electorate only as a whole, the results in the state-by-state polls provide a detailed snapshot of the race where it matters most, in geography and demography. They also help explain why both the Obama and Romney campaigns are focusing so much of their time and money on messages intended to resonate with such specific groups in such specific places.
The latest polls underscore just how tight the presidential race continues to be, with the candidates running closely in Virginia and Colorado and Obama leading in Wisconsin, although not by his double-digit margin of victory in 2008. Obama won all three states in 2008.
Obama is struggling because of the economy and facing new challenges in Colorado, where his support among white men has fallen considerably from where it was in exit polls there in 2008.
But Romney is also struggling to connect with middle-class voters. And about half of voters in each of the three states said presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns (Romney has refused to release more than two years of returns amid calls by Democrats and even Republicans for more).
Combined with the surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the new state polls paint a portrait of an electorate that has largely made up its mind but sees both candidates as having vulnerabilities – giving each side opportunities to exploit.
In all three states, more voters said that Obama’s policies would hurt their personal finances if he were elected to a second term than said they would help.
Romney is running ads in Virginia and Colorado featuring the owner of a metal fabricating business who asserts Obama is undermining him. The campaign has named his coming bus tour: “The Romney Plan for a Stronger Middle Class.”
Intent on holding support among women, Obama is showing commercials calling Romney both “out of touch” on women’s health and a threat to abortion rights. On Monday he called Romney “Romney Hood”, saying his tax plans would take from the middle class to give to the rich.
In Wisconsin, Romney leads Obama by 14 percentage points among white voters who did not graduate from college and have household incomes between $30,000 and $100,000; by 15 percentage points among these voters in Colorado and by 31 percentage points in Virginia.
But more voters overall in the three states said Obama cares about their needs and problems than said the same about Romney.
Obama leads among women by eight points in Colorado, by 14 points in Virginia and by 23 points in Wisconsin. But nearly four in 10 voters in each state said the national economy was getting worse. In all three states women said Obama would do a better job than Romney would on health care. White working-class voters in all six states surveyed in the last two sets of polls said they believed Romney would do a better job on the economy.
“Romney has experience in running a big business and the country is definitely a big business,” said Scott Coble of Denver, a machine operator in a steel supply company and an independent voter.
– (New York Times)