The Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, is expected to suspend the Executive and other institutions of the Belfast Agreement this afternoon in the absence of IRA confirmation that it will decommission, and when.
The Northern Ireland Bill, enabling the reintroduction of di rect rule, received the royal assent last night. While the Government awaits a final response from the republican movement to its proposals to avert suspension, the Secretary of State appeared resigned to signing the order bringing it into effect later today.
With the royal prerogative available, Mr Mandelson is not required to bring the order to the House of Commons before it rises this afternoon at 3 p.m. However, the Ulster Unionists have told him they "expect to hear confirmation of suspension on the six o'clock news".
Authoritative party sources last night told The Irish Times that, assuming no further conclusive report from Gen John de Chas telain, failure by Mr Mandelson to announce suspension by late afternoon would almost certainly trigger Mr David Trimble's post-dated letter of resignation. Even as they counted down to suspension, British sources last night refused to rule out the possibility of an 11th-hour breakthrough. However, they appeared to discount suggestions that an act of IRA decommissioning could be placed in the context of a "collective act of reconciliation".
The sources directed attention to "the two vital questions" originally posed by the Deputy First Minister, Mr Seamus Mallon: `Will they decommission and, if so, when?" Amid continuing speculation about a possible prime ministerial summit later today - and without confirming anything of Mr Mandelson's intended timetable - the sources said there would be "no late-night dramatics".
Despite continuing optimism on the part of the senior Irish officials leading the negotiation with the republican movement, Whitehall sources continued to assert that they were operating with a clear understanding of the timetable within which decisions had finally to be made.
At a meeting of his Assembly Party yesterday afternoon, Mr Trimble reportedly told his colleagues: "We will go into [Saturday's] meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council suspended."
Earlier, at their meeting in Dublin, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, told Mr Trimble that the republican movement's final response might not be forthcoming until this morning. If it was positive, that suggested the likelihood of a further meeting between Mr Trimble and Mr Gerry Adams, and a last-gasp report from the International Commission.
However, sources close to Mr Trimble last night indicated that the shrinking timetable almost certainly would not allow for any Ulster Unionist consideration of any fresh report from Gen de Chastelain in time to avoid suspension. Specifically, the sources said that "a one-off act" in the context of a day of reconciliation - first proposed at Hillsborough last Easter - would not be sufficient for Mr Trimble to seek further time from the UUC, which reconvenes at the Waterfront Hall at 10.30 a.m. tomorrow.
In the US yesterday, the Sinn Fein chairman, Mr Mitchel Mc Laughlin, said if there had to be a choice this weekend between the British government suspending the Northern Ireland institutions and the resignation of Mr Trimble as First Minister, Sinn Fein would prefer the latter. While emphasising that Sinn Fein wanted to continue working the Belfast Agreement, Mr Mc Laughlin said "the lesser of the two evils is to stand by the Good Friday agreement".