The Danes, current holders of the EU presidency, have learnt the hard way not to badger the electorate when it comes to Europe, Brendan Killeen reports from Copenhagen
If the success or otherwise of EU presidencies was judged on the length and frequency of motorcades, then the Danish government would be home and dry. Unfortunately for the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and his coalition government, the secret to success or failure this time around lies with the Irish electorate.
Entrusted with the job of laying a foundation for the enlargement of the EU, the Danish government has been largely sidelined by the upcoming Irish referendum on Nice. A Yes vote will gift them a successful presidency; a No will leave them hanging in the breeze - the spokespeople of a Europe diving for cover.
If any country can appreciate Ireland's predicament, the Danes can. They rejected the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 only to accept it a year later at a new poll. In September 2000 they became the only member-state to reject membership of the euro zone at the polls.
Indeed, the Danish experience has many parallels with the current Irish situation. Horrified at the though of becoming the black sheep of Europe again in 2000, the Danish government, backed by all the major political parties, forecast dire economic consequences for the country if they voted against the new currency. The voters went ahead and voted no anyway.
Two years on and economic meltdown has not materialised. As Søren Kjeldsen-Kragh, professor of economics at the University of Copenhagen, points out: "At the end of 2001, our interest rate was .65% per cent above the ECB. By the 1st of February 2002, it was .3 per cent above".
Prof Kjeldsen-Kragh adds: "As an economist I am afraid of the strict rules on budgetary debt that go along with the euro. I'm afraid that if you have a recession then you do not have the opportunity to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy because you have this 3 per cent limit on the deficit or overdraft that you can have. As soon as Germany and France have to break this limit, which may be soon, the EMU could start to unravel."
Denmark has a strong tradition of resisting the European Union. Whereas the EU was viewed in Ireland as a way to stand on an equal footing with Britain, the Danes have consistently seen the union as dubious idea that would see them handing power over to age-old enemies such as Germany.
However, public sentiment appears to be swinging towards the euro.
Danske Bank, the largest Bank in Denmark, has been carrying out monthly polls on EMU sentiment since last May. The poll for September 2002 suggests that 56 per cent of Danes are now in favour of the euro.
Analysts believe that this is a result of positive holiday experiences within the euro zone - a feel-good factor that may not last.
Denmark's longest-serving MEP, Mr Jens-Peter Bonde, believes this is the case. Mr Bonde actively opposes the bureaucratic superstate he sees being developed in Brussels. The fact that he has been returned more times than any other Danish MEP would suggest he has tapped into a vein of apprehension within the electorate.
"If you look at the polls, there is something striking. Some 13 of the 15 countries would not regret if the EU was dissolved. Only in two countries would people regret it - Luxembourg and Ireland, and you have rejected the Nice Treaty. People like the idea of union but not the realisation. They like the idea of international co-operation but they don't think it's done in a proper way today," Mr Bonde says.
Mr Bonde and his supporters have a complete alternative to Nice and the EU: a Europe of national parliaments which co-operate on certain matters: "A Europe where the commissioners would be our shop stewards in Brussels and not Brussels's shop stewards in Dublin or Copenhagen," he says.
Government sources here have admitted that another Irish No vote will create chaos for them. Privately the Danish government is preparing for the worst. However, the political leaders here have learnt not to threaten their own populace when it comes to Europe, never mind the electorate of another country.
