THE Government parties will not provide any undertaking to hold a Constitutional referendum on abortion before the general election.
Rather than offer a new referendum to anti abortion groups, Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left are likely to repeat the commitment in their Programme for Government to "continue work on the complex ethical, legal and medical problems raised by the X case.
Fianna Fail is in some disarray in the issue, with its justice spokesman, Mr John O'Donoghue, and the party leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, adopting different positions.
Mr O'Donoghue has called for a referendum but Mr Ahern did not commit himself beyond recognising there was "great pressure" in the State to hold one and that the legal position following the Supreme Court judgment in the X case was "untenable".
He said the matter would be considered after a five member team of medical and legal experts reported to the party on the issue. That report is not expected before the general election.
The Progressive Democrats will discuss the matter at the parliamentary party on Tuesday and the policy making general council on Saturday. Before any formal decisions, however, the party seems to favour a legislative response rather than a referendum. "You just cannot keep going back to the country until you get the answer you need," one source said.
This is the second occasion since he became leader in 1992 that Mr Ahern's authority has been challenged on abortion. In 1993, when the Minister for Health, Mr Noonan, introduced the Abortion Information Bill in the Dail, it was opposed by the Fianna Fail parliamentary party even though Mr Ahern and a majority of his front bench had originally favoured the measure.
That back bench revolt was led by the party leader's brother, Mr Noel Ahern, who is deeply committed to another referendum.
Last Friday, following unconfirmed reports that a woman had secured an abortion in a Dublin clinic, Fianna Fail issued a careful statement on behalf of the party leader. It recorded that a committee of legal and medical experts was being established to examine all aspects of abortion and that, following receipt of that report, the party would make its decision. There was no attempt to make it an election issue.
On Saturday, the party's spokesman on justice, Mr O'Donoghue transformed the party's formal position by publicly supporting the holding of a new referendum on abortion. Mr O'Donoghue was one of the most vociferous critics of the Abortion Information Bill three years ago and he helped to swing his party against it.
Significantly, Mr Ahern offered no criticism of Mr O'Donoghue's "solo run" when he was interviewed yesterday on RTE's This Week programme. Instead, he admitted there was "great pressure" for a new referendum in rural constituencies and said this "would have to be taken into account".
Asked if there should be a new referendum, Mr Ahern replied that he did not know. Very complex issues were involved and Fianna Fail had requested a team of experts to study them. The people did not want abortion and the situation could not be allowed to drift indefinitely.
The "liberal wing" of Fianna Fail last night expressed considerable anger at Mr O'Donoghue's behaviour. One senior TD talked of being "just appalled" by him, but there was also strong support within the party for his initiative and Mr Sean Doherty publicly supported another referendum.
A statement from the Pro-Life Campaign described Mr O'Donoghue's announcement as "timely and appropriate" and said "the only realistic option to prohibit abortion in Ireland is a referendum". Legislation would "allow abortion in very wide circumstances", it said.
Fine Gael has made no formal statement on the issue, but the Minister for Justice, Mrs Owen, opposed a new referendum at this time and favoured the introduction of legislation.
A Labour Party spokesman said holding a new referendum, after the people had made their wishes known in 1992, would be "entirely inappropriate and quite grotesque". He recalled that Fianna Fail and the Labour Party had been committed to legislating for the X case in their programme for Government but the issue had been found to be so complex and difficult that this was not done.
The last thing needed was "another incredibly divisive debate", he said.
A spokesman for Democratic Left said the party favoured legislation which would allow for abortion in those cases where there was a substantial threat to the life of the mother. They were "absolutely opposed" to another referendum, he said.