The new Northern Ireland Police Service will inherit serious financial and personnel problems and could be seen as "defective at the point of launch," according to a British government report.
The annual report, prepared by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC), said the downsizing of the RUC through severance schemes, the reduction of numbers in the full-time reserve, illness and a lack of progress towards civilianising many functions were combining "to present the force with a potential serious resourcing gap in the next two years".
Although the first new recruits are expected to pass out in April next year, the HMIC said they would not have "any critical mass" until at least April 2003. "In the interim, the staffing trough could manifest itself in poor visibility of uniform policing and service delivery which does not meet public expectations. If this occurs, the `new Police Service Of Northern Ireland' will be seen as defective at the point of launch," the HMIC said.
If anticipated recruitment and retirement trends were to continue, the service would have 6,955 officers in April 2003, compared with the figure recommended by the Patten report on policing of 7,500.
The high sickness rate meant there was an absence rate of 1,230 officers per day, with another 700 performing "limited functions whilst on recuperative duties".
The report said the gap in resources could be addressed, but only through increased overtime provision and a reassessment of the later phases of the severance scheme begun after Patten.
The report said the severance scheme had already had an uneven effect, with a large number of senior detectives and other specialist officers taking early retirement. Consequently, the force would find itself severely stretched in a number of specialist areas.