AFTER a popular Budget, the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll supports the view in Government circles that the public is less impressed with its efforts to combat crime than with its economic successes.
With pressure on the parties in power to make the most of their economic good news before the election, the poll shows that 86 per cent of people think crime is increasing, compared with 10 per cent who believe crime levels are static, 3 per cent who think it is falling, and 1 per cent who have no opinion.
The public perception is borne out by the official statistics, which show a steady rise in serious offences in recent years. The figures for 1996 are likely to be the same, or only marginally down on the 102,500 indictable offences recorded the previous year.
The poll, which was taken early last week, also bears out the maxim that fear of crime is at least as important to the public and policy makers as crime itself. Despite the large numbers of people convinced that crime is increasing, almost two thirds said that neither they nor their close friends or relatives had been victims of crime last year.
The Government has devoted much effort to new crime measures, partly through planning hut mainly in response to crises such as the murder of the journalist Veronica Guerin last June. The main measures have been a prison building programme, which will increase the prison population from 2,200 to about 3,000, and legislative changes aimed at depriving criminals of their wealth.
The Criminal Assets Bureau, set up last autumn, has been the State's first real effort in this direction. There has also been a Garda crackdown on the main drug gangs, including the one responsible for the journalist's murder.
Yet the public may remember that it was a Fianna Fail Bill, adopted by the Government, which set out the methods by which criminals' wealth might be seized. It has also been apparent that other initiatives, such as holding a referendum to change the bail laws and building more prison spaces, were resisted within the Cabinet before last summer's crises made their implementation almost inevitable.
It may not be surprising, therefore, that only 21 per cent of those polled thought a coalition of the current Government parties would he best for handling the crime problem, compared with the 36 per cent which preferred a Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats coalition.
However, the opposition parties would not be worthy of the name if they had not been able to capitalise on the Government's woes, resulting from both misfortunes and misconceptions, over the last year.
Crime is an emotive subject and the seemingly easiest and most popular solutions inevitably come from the opposition benches. In a crisis, opposition spokespersons can quickly insist on more resources for the prisons and the Garda without worrying unduly about whether the resources can be found.
The poll shows that concern about crime is quite evenly spread among regions, age groups and income groups. But people in parts of Leinster outside Dublin, and in Connacht/Ulster counties, were the most likely to consider that crime is increasing 90 and 92 per cent respectively took that view, compared with the 86 per cent overall
That statistic, particular for Leinster, may reflect the growth in rural crimes committed by the Dublin based gangs making use of new motorways for sallies into the countryside.
Nonetheless, the actual experience of crime remains highest in urban areas. There 47 per cent were victims, or a close friend or relative was a victim, of crime over the last year. This compares with only 20 per cent for rural areas.
Those on higher incomes were more likely to have been or know a victim of crime over the year than the less well off. The poll shows 59 per cent of those in the highest income group had such direct experience of crime, compared to between 3 and 33 per cent in the lower income groups.
The poll also shows that support for a Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats alliance as the better grouping for handling crime is highest in Dublin (41 per cent), while Munster showed the highest level of support (26 per cent) for the current combination of parties.